Littlewood’s Regulation and the International Media

That is an in­ter­est­ing one be­trigger it il­lus­trates a ver­sion of “Lit­tle­wood’s Law of Mir­a­cles”: in a world with ~8 bil­lion peo­ple, one which is in­creas­ingly internet­labored and mo­bile and rich at that, a one-in-bil­lion occasion will hap­pen 8 instances a month. Lit­tle­wooden’s regulation is it­self a spe­cial-case of Di­a­co­nis & Mosteller 1989’s “the Regulation of Actually Massive Num­bers”:

The Regulation of Actually Massive Num­bers. Suc­cinctly put, the regulation of actually massive num­bers states: With a big sufficient sam­ple, any out­ra­geous factor is more likely to hap­pen. The purpose is that actually uncommon occasions, say occasions that oc­cur solely as soon as in a mil­lion [as the math­e­mati­cian Lit­tle­wood (1953) re­quired for an event to be sur­pris­ing] are sure to be plen­ti­ful in a pop­u­la­tion of 250 mil­lion peo­ple. If a co­in­ci­dence oc­curs to 1 per­son in a mil­lion every day, then we ex­pect 250 oc­cur­rences a day and near 100,000 such oc­cur­rences a 12 months.

Go­ing from a 12 months to a life­time and from the pop­u­la­tion of america to that of the world (5 bil­lion at this writ­ing), we will be ab­solutely positive that we’ll see in­cred­i­bly re­mark­ready occasions. When such occasions oc­cur, they’re usually famous and file­ed. In the event that they hap­pen to us or some­one we all know, it’s arduous to es­cape that spooky really feel­ing.

Hu­man ex­tremes should not solely weirder than we sup­pose, they’re weirder than we can sup­pose.

Nev­er­the­much less, “it all adds up to nor­mal­ity”!

Be­trigger bizarre­ness, how­ever bizarre or usually re­port­ed, in­creas­ingly tells us noth­ing concerning the world at massive. In the event you lived in a small vil­lage of 100 peo­ple and also you heard 10 anec­dotes about unhealthy be­hav­ior, the ex­tremes should not that ex­treme, and you may be taught from them (they could even give a good suggestion of what hu­mans in gen­eral are like); when you stay in a ‘international vil­lage’ of 10 bil­lion peo­ple and listen to 10 anec­dotes, you be taught… noth­ing, re­al­ly, be­trigger these few ex­treme anec­dotes rep­re­despatched ex­tra­or­di­nary flukes that are the con­flu­ence of rely­much less in­di­vid­ual flukes, which is able to by no means hap­pen once more in pre­cisely that manner (an ex­pat Iran­ian match­ness in­struc­tor isn’t go­ing to shoot up YouTube HQ once more, we are able to safely say), and provide no classes ap­plic­a­ble to the bil­lions of different peo­ple. One might stay a thou­sand life­instances with­out en­coun­ter­ing such ex­tremes first-hand, reasonably than vic­ar­i­ous­ly.

This isn’t as a consequence of whip­ping boys like “so­cial me­dia” or “Russ­ian trolls”—all of this could be a prob­lem re­gard­much less. The me­dia can re­port with per­fect ac­cu­racy on every (gen­uine) in­ci­dent, however the mere truth of re­port­ing on them and us be taught­ing about such van­ish­ingly bizarre in­ci­dents is it­self the prob­lem—we are able to’t put the correct psy­cho­log­i­cal weight on it. This isn’t only a se­lec­tion bias⁴, it’s a se­lec­tion bias which will get worse over time.

What can we do in self­-de­fense?

We might begin strive­ing to struc­ture our com­mu­ni­ca­tions in a manner which em­bod­ies the true professional­por­tions, and builds within the weight­ing we’re un­in a position to do.

• Crime and crime charges are a simple one—­falls within the crime price ought to get as a lot house because the to­tal of in­di­vid­ual crimes; if a mur­der will get a head­line, then a 12 months with 50 fewer mur­ders ought to get 50 head­strains concerning the that re­duc­tion’s 50 non-mur­ders (be­trigger absolutely keep away from­ing a mur­der is as excellent news as a mur­der is unhealthy information?).

• Per­haps in a single for­mat, dis­cus­sion may very well be weighted sim­i­lar to a meta-an­a­lytic weight­ing of impact sizes: you might be al­lowed to dis­cuss each anec­dotes and stud­ies, however the num­ber of phrases a few anec­dote or examine have to be weighted by sam­ple measurement.

  So when you write 1 web page about some­one who claims X cured their dan­druff, you could then write 100 pages concerning the examine of n = 100 present­ing that X does­n’t remedy dan­druff. That’s solely honest, since that examine is made from 100 anec­dotes, so to talk, and they’re as de­serv­ing of 1 web page of cov­er­age as your first anec­dote—proper?

• Weight­ing may very well be ap­plied to prices & ben­e­suits as effectively: in a dis­cus­sion of clin­i­cal trial de­signal and bioethics of ran­dom­ized ex­per­i­ments and whether or not it may be eth­i­cal to run a RCT, one might al­low dis­cus­sion of the Tuskegee syphilis ex­per­i­ment (have an effect on­ing 399 males) however provided that one then has professional­por­tion­ately a lot dis­cus­sion of the es­ti­mates of the num­ber of peo­ple damage by small un­der­pow­ered in­cor­rect or de­layed ran­dom­ized tri­als (usu­ally es­ti­mated within the mil­lion­s), which could re­quire some advert­vanced ty­po­graphic in­no­va­tions.

• A “professional­por­tional information­pa­per” may al­lo­cate house by ge­o­graphic re­gion pop­u­la­tions, so in to­day’s edi­tion, there may be a gi­ant void with a tiny lit­tle 2-line wire ser­vice merchandise for Africa, whereas the (a lot small­er) USA sec­tion re­quires a mi­cro­scope to learn all of the ma­te­r­ial in it.

• What if one wrote film or guide sum­maries in a strict scal­ing of 100 phrases per X minutes/pages, in­stead of re­ly­ing on fad­ing mem­o­ries or a few points? In any case, that’s how one has to con­sume them, at 1 sec­ond per sec­ond, and what the ex­pe­ri­ence ac­tu­ally is.

  It appears pe­cu­liar that re­views will de­scribe hours of ma­te­r­ial in a couple of sen­tences, after which a 30 sec­ond scene may get a lov­ing mul­ti­-page de­scrip­tion and analy­sis, since that isn’t how one watches the film, and that offers a mis­lead­ing view of the film’s pac­ing, if noth­ing else.

• What in that case­cial me­dia stopped pri­or­i­tiz­ing re­cent brief gadgets and in­stead gave vi­sual actual es­tate in professional­por­tion to how outdated some­factor is?

• Weight by age: If some­one is reread­ing a 50-year-old es­say, that must be given extra professional­por­tion­ally extra em­pha­sis on a so­cial me­dia stream than a 5-minute outdated Tum­blr put up.

Extra im­me­di­ate­ly, it’s best to hold your eye on the ball: ask your­self reg­u­larly how use­ful information con­sump­tion has re­ally been, and when you jus­tify it as en­ter­tain­ment, the way it makes you’re feeling (do you really feel en­ter­tained or re­freshed after­ward­s?), and when you ought to spend as a lot time on it as you do; take Do­bel­li’s ad­vice attempt to reduce or ig­nore re­cent information (per­haps re­place a every day information­pa­per sub­scrip­tion with a weekly pe­ri­od­i­cal like The Econ­o­mist and es­pe­cially cease watch­ing ca­ble information!); shift fo­cus to high­ics of long-term im­por­tance reasonably than excessive­-fre­quency noise (eg sci­en­tific reasonably than polling or inventory mar­ket ar­ti­cles); don’t depend on self­-s­e­lected con­ve­nience sam­ples of reports/opinions/responses/anecdotes delivered to you by different peo­ple, however make your individual con­ve­nience sam­ple which is able to at the least have differ­ent bi­ases and be much less ex­treme (ie don’t go off 10 com­ments on­line, ask 10 of your fol­low­ers in­stead, or learn 10 ran­dom sto­ries in­stead of the highest 10 development­ing sto­ries); in­sist on fol­low­ing back & get­ting full­text sources (when you don’t have time to hint some­factor again to its supply, then your fol­low­ers col­lec­tively don’t have time to spend learn­ing it)⁶; learn ar­ti­cles to the tip (many information­pa­pers, just like the New York Occasions, have a nasty behavior of in­clud­ing crit­i­cal caveat­s—on the finish, the place most learn­ers received’t trouble to learn to); dis­rely issues that are “too good to be true”; fo­cus on im­me­di­ate util­i­ty; attempt to re­duce re­liance on anec­dotes & sto­ries; con­sider epis­te­mo­log­i­cal ana­logues of ro­bust sta­tis­tics like sim­ply throw­ing out the highest and bot­tom per­centiles of information; and pay at­ten­tion to the traits, the massive pic­ture, the cen­tral ten­den­cy, not out­liers.

The world is just get­ting large­ger.

• Para­cosm/fan­tasy prone per­son­al­ity/mal­adap­tive day­dream­ing⁷
• stand-alone com­plex­es: os­ten­sion
• The Dark For­est

• On epis­te­mol­o­gy:

  • Hume’s “Of Mir­a­cles” (WP, SEP overview & im­pact)
  • Han­son: “Ex­tra­or­di­nary Claims ARE Ex­tra­or­di­nary Ev­i­dence”; Han­son: ex­tra­or­di­nary claims are not ex­tra­or­di­nary ev­i­dence
  • “Is there suffi­cient his­tor­i­cal ev­i­dence to es­tab­lish the res­ur­rec­tion of Je­sus?”
  • “Some Claims Are Just Too Ex­tra­or­di­nary”
  • “The Ar­gu­ment from Wit­ness Tes­ti­mony”
  • “Trust in tes­ti­mony and mir­a­cles”: psy­chol­ogy re­search
  • Modus tol­lens vs modus po­nens
  • Bayesian ap­proaches, Jaynes (com­men­tary)
  • Laplace on wit­ness tes­ti­mony

• “Car­di­ol­o­gists and Chi­nese Rob­bers”; “Might Peo­ple On The In­ter­net Some­times Lie?”; “Differ­ent Worlds”; “Be­ware The Man Of One Study”; “The Con­trol Group Is Out Of Con­trol”: para­psy­chol­ogy & phi­los­o­phy of sci­ence; “The Virtue of Si­lence”

• “Lep­rechauns are Mul­ti­ply­ing”, Re­gan

• “Trust Me I’m Ly­ing: A Sum­mary and Re­view”

• “Some of Red­dit’s Wildest Re­la­tion­ship Sto­ries Are Lies. I’d Know—I Wrote Them”

• “How I Used Lies About A Car­toon to Prove His­tory Is Mean­ing­less on the In­ter­net”

• “The Tox­o­plasma of Rage”

• “Most of What You Read on the In­ter­net is Writ­ten by In­sane Peo­ple” (“Why does High School Mu­si­cal’s Corbin Bleu have the third-most widely trans­lated Wikipedia page of any per­son, liv­ing or dead?”; “The Ad­min Who Cre­ated 80,000 Redi­rects About Tit­ties”); “Do po­lice killings of un­armed per­sons re­ally have spillover effects? Re­an­a­lyz­ing Bor et al. (2018)”, Nix & Lozada 2019

• 2020 Twit­ter bit­coin scam

• The Great Wall of China hoax

• “Re­searcher at the cen­ter of an epic fraud re­mains an enigma to those who ex­posed him”

• “The Un­be­liev­able Tale of Je­sus’s Wife”, King’s re­sponse; “Bats on the Ceil­ing: The Gospel of St. Karen”

• “How a Lit­er­ary Prank Con­vinced Ger­many That ‘Hansel and Gre­tel’ Was Re­al: A 1963 book pur­ported to prove that the sib­lings were mur­der­ous bak­ers”

• “When a Stranger De­cides to De­stroy Your Life” (see additionally “Sort By Con­tro­ver­sial”: a Hal­loween Tale)

• “The Ms.Scribe Sto­ry: An Unau­tho­rized Fan­dom Bi­og­ra­phy”; “We Are All Ms.Scribe”

• “Ob­sessed Bene­dict Cum­ber­batch Fans Tried to Have Me Fired: My en­counter with in­ter­net fan­dom, and the rise of the celebrity re­la­tion­ship con­spir­acy the­ory”; “How a Fake Baby Is Born: For years, women on the in­ter­net have been writ­ing con­spir­acy the­o­ries about celebrity preg­nan­cies. What sparks them?”

• “Lax Se­cu­rity and Mod­er­a­tion at Goodreads Al­lows Trolls to Spoof Peo­ple, Ha­rass Au­thors”

• “A 20th-Cen­tury Mas­ter Scam”: John Drewe

• “Maybe She Had So Much Money She Just Lost Track of It—­Some­body had to foot the bill for Anna Delvey’s fab­u­lous new life. The city was full of marks”

• Joyce Hatto: “Fan­ta­sia for Pi­ano: Joyce Hat­to’s in­cred­i­ble ca­reer”

• “The Jun­gle Prince of Del­hi: For 40 years, jour­nal­ists chron­i­cled the ec­cen­tric royal fam­ily of Oudh, de­posed aris­to­crats who lived in a ru­ined palace in the In­dian cap­i­tal. It was a trag­ic, as­ton­ish­ing sto­ry. But was it true?”

• Bin­jamin Wilkomirski: “The Man with Two Heads”

• “The great clown panic of 2016 is a hoax. But the ter­ri­fy­ing side of clowns is re­al.”

• “The Speedrun­ner Who Was­n’t: How a Com­mu­nity Dealt with an Elab­o­rate Cheater: It would take weeks of de­fen­sive pub­lic state­ments, pri­vate bat­tles, Red­dit threads, and hos­tile ex­changes with a re­porter be­fore the truth came out”

• “The movie that does­n’t ex­ist and the Red­di­tors who think it does”

• “Mys­te­ri­ous Cir­cum­stances: The strange death of a Sher­lock Holmes fa­natic” (on Richard Lance­lyn Green)

• Momo Chal­lenge hoax; Blue Whale Chal­lenge; Smi­ley face mur­der the­ory (Rolling Stone)

• Thomas Quick/Sture Berg­wall; Henry Darger (why did an el­der­ly, soli­tary dish­wash­er, write & il­lus­trate a 15,000+ page un­pub­lished fan­tasy nov­el?)

• Tuc­son ar­ti­facts

• the Can­neto di Ca­ro­nia fires

• “The Bible That Oozed Oil: A small Geor­gia town, a prophecy about Don­ald Trump, and the story of how a mir­a­cle fell apart.”

• “The In­tre­pid Mother and Son Who Un­rav­eled a Ge­o­graphic Hoax: At­las Ob­scura had a page for some­thing called Moose Boul­der, un­til fan Roger Dickey called us on it.”

• “‘Noth­ing on this page is real’: How lies be­come truth in on­line Amer­ica”

• “The Most Gullible Man in Cam­bridge: A Har­vard Law pro­fes­sor who teaches a class on judg­ment would­n’t seem like an ob­vi­ous mark, would he?”; Hay’s re­but­tal

• “Jeal­ousy Led Mon­tana Chemist to Taint Col­league’s Wa­ter Tests”

• “The Ac­cu­sa­tions Were Lies. But Could We Prove It? When the uni­ver­sity told my wife about the sex­u­al-ha­rass­ment com­plaints against her, we knew they weren’t true. We had no idea how strange the truth re­ally was.”

• “Com­mon-Knowl­edge At­tacks on Democ­racy”, Far­rell & Schneier 2018

• “Google: Tam­ing the Long La­tency Tail—When More Ma­chines Equals Worse Re­sults”; “The Tail at Scale: Soft­ware tech­niques that tol­er­ate la­tency vari­abil­ity are vi­tal to build­ing re­spon­sive large-s­cale Web ser­vices”, Dean & Bar­roso 2013; Site Re­li­a­bil­ity En­gi­neer­ing: How Google Runs Pro­duc­tion Sys­tems, Beyer et al 2016 (“At Google scale, mil­lion-to-one possibilities hap­pen on a regular basis.”); “One in a mil­lion is next Tues­day”; “Lan­guage ID in the Wild: Un­ex­pected Chal­lenges on the Path to a Thou­sand-Lan­guage Web Text Cor­pus”, Caswell et al 2020

• “Solv­ing the Mys­tery of Link Im­bal­ance: A Metastable Fail­ure State at Scale”, Bron­son 2014; “The Mys­tery Ma­chine: End-to-end Per­for­mance Analy­sis of Large-s­cale In­ter­net Ser­vices”, Chow et al 2014

• “Here’s How Face­book Is Try­ing to Mod­er­ate Its Two Bil­lion Users”

• “BH 2011: Bit-squatting—DNS hi­jack­ing with­out ex­ploita­tion”; “DRAM’s Damn­ing De­fect­s-and How They Crip­ple Com­put­ers: An in­ves­ti­ga­tion into dy­namic ran­dom-ac­cess mem­ory chip fail­ure re­veals sur­pris­ing hard­ware vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties”

• “Why fake minia­tures de­pict­ing Is­lamic sci­ence are every­where”

• “Death of a Kinkster”

• “Late Night Thoughts on Read­ing Sci­en­tol­ogy”

• “The Ly­ing Dis­ease: Why Would Some­one Want to Fake a Se­ri­ous Ill­ness on the In­ter­net?”; The boy who con­vinced his friend to mur­der him via false on­line iden­ti­ties

• “The Tin­der Hack­er: When I asked Sean about his hob­bies, I was­n’t pre­pared for what he said.”

• “Net­work Heuris­tics”; “Recog­ni­tion Is Fu­tile: Why Check­list Ap­proaches to In­for­ma­tion Lit­er­acy Fail and What To Do About It”

• “Ori­gins of Tes­ti­mo­ni­als” in chain let­ters

• Dis­cus­sion: HN, 1/2, Red­dit, LW

Bib­li­og­ra­phy of web page hyperlinks in learn­ing or­der (with an­no­ta­tions when avail­ready):

1. “Up and down with ecology—the ‘issue-attention cycle’”, An­thony Downs (1972-01-01):

   American public consideration hardly ever stays sharply targeted upon anybody home difficulty for very lengthy—even when it entails a unbroken downside of essential significance to society. As a substitute, a scientific “issue-attention cycle” appears strongly to affect public attitudes and habits regarding most key home issues. Every of those issues abruptly leaps into prominence, stays there for a short while, after which—although nonetheless largely unresolved—progressively fades from the middle of public consideration. A examine of the way in which this cycle operates gives insights into how lengthy public consideration is more likely to stay sufficiently targeted upon any given difficulty to generate sufficient political strain to trigger efficient change.

   The shaping of American attitudes towards enhancing the standard of the environment gives each an instance and a possible take a look at of this “issue-attention cycle.” Previously few years, there was a remarkably widespread upsurge of curiosity within the high quality of the environment. This alteration in public attitudes has been a lot sooner than any modifications within the atmosphere itself. What has brought about this shift in public consideration? Why did this difficulty abruptly assume so excessive a precedence amongst our home considerations? And the way lengthy will the American public maintain high-intensity curiosity in ecological issues? I imagine that solutions to those questions analyzing the “issue-attention cycle.”

   The dynamics of the “issue-attention cycle”

   Public notion of most “crises” in American home life doesn’t mirror modifications in actual situations as a lot because it displays the operation of a scientific cycle of heightening public curiosity after which rising boredom with main points. This “issue-attention cycle” is rooted each within the nature of sure home issues and in the way in which main communications media work together with the general public. The cycle itself has 5 phases, which can fluctuate in length relying upon the actual difficulty concerned, however which nearly at all times happen within the following sequence:

   1. The pre-problem stage…
   2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm…
   3. Realizing the price of vital progress…
   4. Gradual decline of intense public curiosity…
   5. The post-problem stage…

2. “Anthony Downs, “Up and Down with Ecology: The ‘Issue-Attention’ Cycle””, Kuhika Gup­ta, Hank Jenk­in­s-Smith (2015):

   This chapter feedback on Anthony Downs’s 1972 seminal paper “Up and Down with Ecology: The ‘Problem-Consideration’ Cycle”, which tackles the idea of “public” or “difficulty” consideration. Specializing in home coverage, notably environmental coverage in america, Downs describes a course of known as “issue-attention cycle”, by which the general public good points and loses curiosity in a selected difficulty over time. This chapter summarizes research that immediately put Downs’s propositions to the take a look at, laying emphasis on analysis that probes the existence of and interrelationships among the many public consideration cycle, media consideration cycle, and authorities consideration cycle. It then opinions the primary arguments put ahead by Downs earlier than concluding with a dialogue of promising avenues for future analysis in addition to vital theoretical and methodological questions that want additional elucidation.

3. “Accelerating dynamics of collective attention”, Philipp Loren­z-Spreen, Bjarke Mørch Møn­st­ed, Philipp Hövel, Sune Lehmann (2019-04-15):

   With information pushed to good telephones in actual time and social media reactions spreading throughout the globe in seconds, the general public dialogue can seem accelerated and temporally fragmented. In longitudinal datasets throughout varied domains, overlaying a number of many years, we discover rising gradients and shortened intervals within the trajectories of how cultural gadgets obtain collective consideration. Is that this the inevitable conclusion of the way in which data is disseminated and consumed? Our findings assist this speculation. Utilizing a easy mathematical mannequin of subjects competing for finite collective consideration, we’re in a position to clarify the empirical information remarkably effectively. Our modeling means that the accelerating ups and downs of well-liked content material are pushed by rising manufacturing and consumption of content material, leading to a extra fast exhaustion of restricted consideration assets. Within the interaction with competitors for novelty, this causes rising turnover charges and particular person subjects receiving shorter intervals of collective consideration.

4. https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/30/links-317-relinkquishment/

5. “2017 Jewish Community Center bomb threats”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

   In early 2017, a wave of greater than 2,000 bomb threats have been made in opposition to Jewish Group Facilities in america, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Denmark. Two arrests have been made in reference to the threats and Michael Ron David Kadar, a twin American-Israeli citizen, has been convicted. He was sentenced to 10 years imprisonment.

6. https://apnews.com/a6a67fb761304e3cae7497faa32dcdc9

7. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/the-dangers-of-blaming-trump-for-anti-semitism/520692/

8. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-american-hacker-who-terrorized-u-s-jews-with-bomb-threats-gets-10-years-1.6677435

9. “Littlewood’s law”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

   Littlewood’s regulation states that an individual can count on to expertise occasions with odds of 1 in one million on the price of about one monthly.

10. “Methods for Studying Coincidences”, Persi Di­a­con­is, Fred­er­ick Mosteller (1989-01-01):

    This text illustrates primary statistical strategies for learning coincidences. These embrace data-gathering strategies (casual anecdotes, case research, observational research, and experiments) and strategies of study (exploratory and confirmatory information evaluation, particular analytic strategies, and probabilistic modeling, each common and particular goal). We develop a model of the birthday downside common sufficient to incorporate dependence, inhomogeneity, and virtually and a number of matches. We evaluation Fisher’s strategies for giving partial credit score for shut matches. We develop a mannequin for learning coincidences involving newly discovered phrases. As soon as we put aside coincidences having obvious causes, 4 rules account for giant numbers of remaining coincidences: hidden trigger; psychology, together with reminiscence and notion; multiplicity of endpoints, together with the counting of “shut” or practically alike occasions as in the event that they have been similar; and the regulation of actually massive numbers, which says that when huge numbers of occasions and other people and their interactions cumulate over time, virtually any outrageous occasion is sure to happen. These sources account for a lot of the pressure of synchronicity. [Keywords: birthday problems, extrasensory perception, Jung, Kammerer, multiple endpoints, rare events, synchronicity]

    …Due to our completely different studying habits, we readers are uncovered to the identical phrases at completely different noticed charges, even when the long-run charges are the identical Some phrases will seem comparatively early in your expertise, some comparatively late. Greater than half will seem earlier than their anticipated time of look, in all probability greater than 60% of them if we use the exponential mannequin, so the looks of recent phrases is sort of a Poisson course of. However, some phrases will take greater than twice the typical time to seem, about 1⁄7 of them (1⁄e²) within the exponential mannequin. They’ll look rarer than they really are. Moreover, their common time to reappearance is lower than half that of their noticed first look, and about 10% of people who took at the least twice so long as they need to should happen will seem in lower than 1⁄20 of the time they initially took to seem. The mannequin we’re utilizing supposes an exponential ready time to first incidence of occasions. The phenomenon that accounts for a part of this variable habits of the phrases is after all the regression impact.

    …We now prolong the mannequin. Suppose that we’re considerably extra sophisticated creatures, that we require okay exposures to note a phrase for the primary time, and that okay is itself a Poisson random variable…Then, the imply time till the phrase is observed is (𝜆 + 1)T, the place T is the typical time between precise occurrences of the phrase. The variance of the time is (2𝜆 + 1)T². Suppose T = 1 12 months and 𝜆 = 4. Then, as an approximation, 5% of the phrases will take at the least time [𝜆 + 1 + 1.65 (2𝜆 + 1)^(1⁄2)]T or about 10 years to be detected the primary time. Assume additional that, now that you’re sensitized, you’ll detect the phrase the following time it seems. On the typical will probably be a 12 months, however about 3% of those phrases that have been so gradual to be detected the primary time will seem inside a month by pure variation alone. So what took 10 years to occur as soon as occurs once more inside a month. No marvel we’re astonished. One among our graduate college students discovered the phrase “formication” on a Friday and browse a part of this manuscript the following Sunday, two days later, illustrating the impact and offering an anecdote. Right here, sensitizing the person, the regression impact, and the recall of notable occasions and the non-recall of humdrum occasions produce a scenario the place coincidences are famous with a lot increased than their anticipated frequency. This mannequin can clarify huge numbers of seeming coincidences.

11. “The Shadow of the Torturer”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    The Shadow of the Torturer is a science fiction novel by American author Gene Wolfe, revealed by Simon & Schuster in Might 1980. It’s the first of 4 volumes in The E book of the New Solar which Wolfe had accomplished in draft earlier than The Shadow of the Torturer was revealed. It relates the story of Severian, an apprentice Seeker for Fact and Penitence, from his youth by means of his expulsion from the guild and subsequent journey out of his dwelling metropolis of Nessus.

12. “Gene Wolfe”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    Gene Rodman Wolfe was an American science fiction and fantasy author. He was famous for his dense, allusive prose in addition to the sturdy affect of his Catholic religion. He was a prolific brief story author and novelist and received many science fiction and fantasy literary awards.

13. “Henry Mayhew”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Henry Mayhew was a journalist, playwright, and advocate of reform. He was one of many co-founders of the satirical journal Punch in 1841, and was the journal’s joint editor, with Mark Lemon, in its early days. He’s additionally identified for his work as a social researcher, publishing an intensive sequence of newspaper articles within the Morning Chronicle that was later compiled into the guide sequence London Labour and the London Poor (1851), a groundbreaking and influential survey of the town’s poor.

14. “London Labour and the London Poor”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    London Labour and the London Poor is a piece of Victorian journalism by Henry Mayhew. Within the 1840s, he noticed, documented, and described the state of working folks in London for a sequence of articles in a newspaper, the Morning Chronicle, that have been later compiled into guide type.

15. “Tim Powers”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    Timothy Thomas Powers is an American science fiction and fantasy creator. Powers has received the World Fantasy Award twice for his critically acclaimed novels Final Name and Declare. His 1987 novel On Stranger Tides served as inspiration for the Monkey Island franchise of video video games and was optioned for adaptation into the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean movie.

16. “The Anubis Gates”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    The Anubis Gates is a 1983 time journey fantasy novel by American author Tim Powers. It received the 1983 Philip Okay. Dick Award and 1984 Science Fiction Chronicle Award.

17. “Graham Robb”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Graham Macdonald Robb FRSL is a British creator and critic specialising in French literature.

18. “The Discovery of France”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    The Discovery of France: A Historic Geography, from the Revolution to the First World Conflict is a guide by Graham Robb. It was revealed in September 2007 in the UK by Picador and in October 2007 in america by W. W. Norton and Firm. The guide, a results of biking 14,000 miles round France coupled with 4 years of analysis, is an in-depth examination of French nationwide id as seen by means of the various cultures and languages contained throughout the nation.

19. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milord_l’Arsouille

20. “Jean-Marie Déguignet”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Jean-Marie Déguignet was a Breton soldier, farmer, salesman, shopkeeper, and author who’s greatest identified for his memoirs illuminating the lifetime of the agricultural poor of Nineteenth-century France.

21. https://archive.org/details/parisanecdote00priv/page/n7

22. https://archive.org/details/parisinconnu01delvgoog/page/n7

23. “Category:Obsolete occupations”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

24. “Knocker-up”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    A knocker-up, generally generally known as a knocker-upper, wasa career in Britain and Eire that began throughout and lasted effectively into the Industrial Revolution, when alarm clocks have been neither low cost nor dependable. A knocker-up’s job was to evoke sleeping folks so they might get to work on time. By the Nineteen Forties and Nineteen Fifties, this career had died out, though it nonetheless continued in some pockets of business England till the early Seventies.

25. /docs/history/2009-jullien.pdf

26. “Eugène Sue”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Marie-Joseph “Eugène” Sue was a French novelist. He was one in all a number of authors who popularized the style of the serial novel in France together with his very talked-about and broadly imitated The Mysteries of Paris, which was revealed in a newspaper from 1842 to 1843.

27. “The Mysteries of Paris”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    The Mysteries of Paris is a novel by the French author Eugène Sue. It was revealed serially in 90 elements in Journal des débats from 19 June 1842 till 15 October 1843, making it one of many first serial novels revealed in France. It was an prompt success and singlehandedly elevated the circulation of Journal des débats. It based the “metropolis mysteries” style, spawning many imitations.

28. “Juan M. Thompson”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Juan M. Thompson is a former American journalist who was later convicted for cyberstalking and making a number of bomb threats to Jewish Group Facilities within the U.S.

29. “YouTube headquarters shooting”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    On April 3, 2018 round 12:46 p.m. PDT, a capturing occurred on the headquarters of the video-sharing web site YouTube in San Bruno, California. The shooter was recognized as 38-year-old Nasim Najafi Aghdam, who entered by means of an exterior parking storage, approached an out of doors patio, and opened hearth with a Smith & Wesson 9 mm semi-automatic pistol. Aghdam wounded three folks, one in all them critically, earlier than killing herself.

30. “‘Vegan Bodybuilder’: How YouTube Attacker, Nasim Aghdam, Went Viral in Iran”, Daisuke Wakabayashi, Thomas Erdbrink, Matthew Haag (NYT) (2018-04-04):

    In Iran, she was generally known as Inexperienced Nasim, a social media star with followings on YouTube, on Instagram and elsewhere. · In america, she solid a really completely different profile, a proponent of vegan diets, animal rights and residential train who had more and more develop into agitated by one of many tech firms that helped give her a platform… · The police mentioned Ms. Aghdam’s anger over what she believed to be unfair therapy by YouTube had set her on a 500-mile drive from her dwelling close to San Diego to YouTube’s workplaces on the northern fringe of Silicon Valley. · “Individuals like me should not good for giant enterprise, like for animal enterprise, drugs enterprise and for a lot of different companies. That’s why they’re discriminating and censoring us,” she mentioned in a video posted on-line final 12 months criticizing YouTube. “That is what they’re doing to vegan activists and plenty of different individuals who attempt to promote wholesome, humane and good residing.”

    …Ms. Aghdam was in her late 30s. In a number of of her movies, she mentioned she was born in Iran, within the metropolis of Urmia, the place most individuals additionally converse Turkish, as she does in a few of her movies. Ms. Aghdam had YouTube pages in Persian, Turkish and English. She defined that she and her household have been members of the Baha’i religion, which faces persecution in Iran, a rustic with a Muslim majority. · A number of of her colourful—and generally weird—movies had gone viral in Iran. Her web site, which mentioned it was quoting Western information retailers, recognized her as “the primary Persian feminine vegan bodybuilder.” · “Now the media shall be confronted with a brand new kind of Iranian feminine which doesn’t match inside any of their common categorizations,” a Twitter person named Katayoon mentioned Wednesday. · “This was stunning and saddening,” one Iranian, Bahare, wrote on Twitter of Ms. Aghdam. “We laughed a lot however now it seems all these movies have been so critical for herself.” · Ms. Aghdam turned particularly well-known for one clip through which she wears a revealing purple costume, displaying cleavage, and begins to slowly strip off her garments to disclose a pair of pretend plastic breasts. “Don’t belief your eyes,” learn a caption in English on the clip.

    …Her private web site and movies posted to YouTube and elsewhere have been stuffed with complaints about YouTube. “When trying to find my web site in google, at high of hyperlink they add ‘an error occurred’ however there isn’t any error!” an internet site beneath Ms. Aghdam’s identify, NasimeSabz.com, mentioned in February 2016. “They add it to maintain you from my visiting my web site.” · Life in america had not been good, she mentioned in a single video from March 30. “There they kill you by ax,” she mentioned of Iran. “Right here they kill you with cotton,” referring to an Iranian expression which means dying by one thing that you simply have no idea is harmful. · In one other video, she responded to viewers who had begun to marvel if she was mentally unwell: “I don’t have any particular psychological or bodily illness, however I stay on a planet stuffed with illness, issues, perversions and injustices.” · The American dream gave the impression to be tarnished for her after she started to face hurdles in america. · “In case you are superficial, you’ll suppose it’s heaven right here, which you can go bare outdoors and have intercourse left and proper like different animals with none morality,” she mentioned in a single video in Persian. “However when you enter the system, you will notice that it’s worse than Iran,” she mentioned. “Those that need to inform folks in opposition to the system and massive firms get censored.”

31. https://www.thedailybeast.com/vegan-youtube-is-imploding-as-stars-like-rawvana-bonny-rebecca-and-stella-rae-change-diets

32. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2005/02/bachrach200502

33. “Darwin Awards”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    The Darwin Awards are a tongue-in-cheek honor originating in Usenet newsgroup discussions round 1985. They acknowledge people who’ve supposedly contributed to human evolution by choosing themselves out of the gene pool from dying or changing into sterilized through their very own actions.

34. https://stevecoast.com/2015/03/27/the-world-will-only-get-weirder/

35. “Germanwings Flight 9525”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Germanwings Flight 9525 was a scheduled worldwide passenger flight from Barcelona–El Prat Airport in Spain to Düsseldorf Airport in Germany. The flight was operated by Germanwings, a low-cost provider owned by the German airline Lufthansa. On 24 March 2015, the plane, an Airbus A320-211, crashed 100 km north-west of Good within the French Alps. All 144 passengers and 6 crew members have been killed. It was Germanwings’ first deadly crash within the 18-year historical past of the corporate.

36. https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/a3115/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877/

37. “Malaysia Airlines Flight 370”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Malaysia Airways Flight 370 was a scheduled worldwide passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airways that disappeared on 8 March 2014 whereas flying from Kuala Lumpur Worldwide Airport to its deliberate vacation spot, Beijing Capital Worldwide Airport. The crew of the Boeing 777-200ER plane final communicated with air visitors management (ATC) round 38 minutes after takeoff when the flight was over the South China Sea. The plane was misplaced from ATC radar screens minutes later however was tracked by army radar for one more hour, deviating westwards from its deliberate flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and Andaman Sea. It left radar vary 200 nautical miles (370 km) northwest of Penang Island in northwestern Peninsular Malaysia. With all 227 passengers and 12 crew aboard presumed lifeless, the disappearance of Flight 370 was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and the deadliest in Malaysia Airways’ historical past till it was surpassed in each regards by Malaysia Airways Flight 17, which was shot down whereas flying over conflict-stricken japanese Ukraine 4 months later. The mixed loss brought about vital monetary issues for Malaysia Airways, which was renationalised by the Malaysian authorities in December 2014.

38. https://github.com/kdeldycke/awesome-falsehood

39. “Byte”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    The byte is a unit of digital data that mostly consists of eight bits. Traditionally, the byte was the variety of bits used to encode a single character of textual content in a pc and for that reason it’s the smallest addressable unit of reminiscence in lots of laptop architectures. To disambiguate arbitrarily sized bytes from the widespread 8-bit definition, community protocol paperwork equivalent to The Web Protocol (1981) confer with an 8-bit byte as an octet.. These bits in an octet are usualy counted with numbering from 0 to 7 or 7 to 0 relying on the so known as ‘endian’. the first bit is quantity 0 making the eighth bit quantity 7.

40. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/p_hacking.pdf

41. “Everything Is Correlated”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2014-09-12):

    

    Sta­tis­ti­cal people­lore as­serts that “each­factor is cor­re­lated”: in any re­al-world dataset, most or all mea­sured vari­ables can have non-zero cor­re­la­tions, even be­tween vari­ables which ap­pear to be com­pletely in­de­pen­dent of every oth­er, and that these cor­re­la­tions should not merely sam­pling er­ror flukes however will ap­pear in large-s­cale datasets to ar­bi­trar­ily des­ig­nated lev­els of sta­tis­ti­cal-sig­nifi­cance or pos­te­rior prob­a­bil­i­ty.

    This raises se­ri­ous ques­tions for nul­l-hy­poth­e­sis sta­tis­ti­cal-sig­nifi­cance take a look at­ing, because it im­plies the null hy­poth­e­sis of 0 will al­methods be re­jected with suffi­cient information, imply­ing {that a} fail­ure to re­ject solely im­plies in­suffi­cient information, and professional­vides no ac­tual take a look at or con­fir­ma­tion of a the­o­ry. Even a di­rec­tional pre­dic­tion is min­i­mally con­fir­ma­tory since there’s a 50% probability of decide­ing the fitting di­rec­tion at ran­dom.

    It additionally has im­pli­ca­tions for con­cep­tu­al­iza­tions of the­o­ries & causal mod­els, in­ter­pre­ta­tions of struc­tural mod­els, and different sta­tis­ti­cal prin­ci­ples such because the “spar­sity prin­ci­ple”.

42. “The Replication Crisis: Flaws in Mainstream Science”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2010-10-27):

    Lengthy-standing issues in commonplace scientific methodology have exploded because the “Replication Crisis”: the invention that many ends in fields as numerous as psychology, economics, drugs, biology, and sociology are actually false or quantitatively extremely inaccurately measured. I cowl right here a handful of the problems and publications on this massive, vital, and quickly creating subject as much as about 2013, at which level the Replication Disaster turned too massive a subject to cowl greater than cursorily.

    The disaster is attributable to strategies & publishing procedures which interpret random noise as vital outcomes, far too small datasets, selective evaluation by an analyst making an attempt to succeed in anticipated/desired outcomes, publication bias, poor implementation of present best-practices, nontrivial ranges of analysis fraud, software program errors, philosophical beliefs amongst researchers that false positives are acceptable, neglect of identified confounding like genetics, and skewed incentives (monetary & skilled) to publish ‘scorching’ outcomes.

    Thus, any particular person piece of analysis usually establishes little. Scientific validation comes not from small p-values, however from discovering a daily characteristic of the world which disinterested third events can uncover with simple analysis performed independently on new information with new procedures—replication.

43. “The Lizardman Constant”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2020-08-29):

    Temporary evaluation of Scott Alexander’s “lizardman constant”: human survey-takers will, with >0% likelihood, endorse probably the most absurd gadgets on a survey, for a mixture of causes like laziness, boredom, humor, sabotage, ignorance, and stupidity. For instance, 4% of respondents could endorse the declare ‘lizard-people rule the earth’. 5% of atheists imagine in God. And so forth. This cautions us in opposition to taking survey outcomes about extraordinarily uncommon folks or traits too actually, or anticipating completely correct outcomes, as given the lizardman fixed, it’s totally doable that some or all the outliers may be the lizardman fixed at work.

44. “I’m paid biweekly, just not by leprechauns: Evaluating valid-but-incorrect response rates to attention check items”, Paul G. Cur­ran, Kelsey A. Hauser (2019-10-01):

    • Carelessness in self-report information will be detected with many strategies.
    • Embedding gadgets in a scale with presumed ‘right’ responses is one in all these.
    • Properties of this stuff can influence their usefulness.
    • People can present legitimate justification for ‘incorrect’ responses.
    • Researchers ought to know their gadgets, and know the chance of not figuring out these gadgets.

    Participant carelessness is a supply of invalidity in psychological information (Huang, Liu, & Bowling, 2015), and plenty of strategies have been created to display screen for this carelessness (Curran, 2016; Johnson, 2005). These embrace gadgets that researchers presume considerate people will reply in a given manner (e.g., disagreement with “I’m paid biweekly by leprechauns”, Meade & Craig, 2012). This paper stories on two samples through which people spoke aloud a sequence of those questions, and located that (a) people do sometimes report legitimate justifications for presumed invalid responses, (b) there may be comparatively excessive variance on this habits over completely different gadgets, and (c) gadgets developed for this particular goal are likely to work higher than these drawn from different sources or created ad-hoc. [Keywords: Carelessness, Data cleaning, Insufficient effort responding, Verbal protocol, Self-report data]

    …

    “All my pals are aliens”	“‘Aliens’ is a relative time period; I don’t truly know for positive” · “What does that even imply, we’re all aliens if there’s different life on the market”
    “I’m inquisitive about…parabanjology”	“Is likely to be actual so don’t need to disagree” · “It sounds prefer it may very well be fascinating”
    “I work twenty-eight hours in a typical work day.”	“It appears like that generally”
    “I’m accustomed to geological phrases equivalent to jpg and firewall.”	“I do know what these are, however don’t know that they’re geological”
    “I’m fluent in combinatorial English”	“I’m fluent in English”
    “I’m able to learn the minds of others” · “I can see into the longer term”	“Perceive common concept of what others are pondering” · “Shut pals know one another” · “Can plan and count on future occasions”
    “I sleep lower than one hour per evening”	“Once I’m pulling an all-nighter I do” · “I sleep only a few hours every evening”
    “All my pals say I’d make a terrific poodle”	“They are saying I’m like a pet” · “They are saying I’d make a terrific koala” · “Associates say I share dog-like persona” · “Associates have mentioned my hair appears to be like like a poodle” · “Have been informed I’d make a superb canine” · “Don’t know, I’ve by no means requested them”
    “I eat cement sometimes”	“There was cement in my braces, positive that I ate some” · “There are quite a lot of issues which are in cement in quite a lot of meals, so possibly consuming elements of it”
    “Reply with ‘Disagree’ for this merchandise”	“Merchandise doesn’t say how a lot to disagree (picked ‘Strongly disagree’)”
    “I’m paid biweekly by leprechauns”	“I’m paid biweekly, simply not by leprechauns”
    ” “I can run 2 miles in 2 min”	“It doesn’t say run along with your toes, can do it in my thoughts”
    “I’ve been to each nation on the planet”	“I’ve been to quite a lot of nations” · “I’ve in all probability been to extra nations than most individuals”
    “I can teleport throughout time and house”	“Effectively, time passes, and I can transfer locations, in order that’s kind of true” · “Is strolling a kind of teleportation?” · “In my goals I can as a result of one in all my life objectives is to be the physician’s companion”

    Desk 2: Chosen examples of legitimate justifications for ‘incorrect’ solutions.

45. “Duhem–Quine thesis”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    The Duhem–Quine thesis, additionally known as the Duhem–Quine downside, after Pierre Duhem and Willard Van Orman Quine, is that it’s not possible to check a scientific speculation in isolation, as a result of an empirical take a look at of the speculation requires a number of background assumptions. In latest many years the set of related assumptions supporting a thesis generally is named a bundle of hypotheses.

46. “Teddy Roosevelt on a Moose: Fake News, or Fake Fake News? An old photo of a U.S. president on mooseback is often used to illustrate the deep roots of media deception. The real story may not back that up.”, Rose Eveleth (Wired) (2020-03-24):

    President Theodore Roosevelt was bigger than life, in some ways. He explored the Amazon. He delivered a marketing campaign speech after being shot…And on at the least one event, Roosevelt rode in a saddle on a moose. There’s even a photograph of that very last thing: Teddy in his iconic white safari hat, perched atop an antlered beast because it fords a physique of water flanked by evergreens.

    …The issue is that this specific experience by no means occurred. The picture is doctored—{a photograph} of the president that was reduce and glued atop an image of a moose. Up shut, the well-known picture is straightforward to determine as a sham: The seams round his legs and palms are messy and point out foul play. (Anyone who is aware of a lot about moose wouldn’t have to make an in depth inspection. The wild creatures should not precisely pleasant, they usually definitely don’t admire being ridden.) But the picture, ripe with the juicy mythology of a president who might generally appear as if he’d ridden out of a tall story, has been shared far and huge, and handled as the true deal. As we speak, you’ll find it printed onto mugs, posters and even cheeky t-shirts.

    …Then it occurred to me how little I actually knew concerning the image’s origin. It was clearly pretend, that a lot was apparent. However who had performed the faking, and for what cause? And was its awkward cut-and-pasting actually meant to be misleading? Had Teddy put it out himself to point out how badass he was? Or had a rival put it out to try to catch him in a lie? What precisely, are we debunking right here?

    …Right here’s what I can say conclusively: The picture was created in 1912 by a pictures agency known as Underwood and Underwood, as a part of a political triptych displaying every of that 12 months’s presidential candidates cut-and-pasted atop the animal that represented his political social gathering. On the left, William Howard Taft sits on an elephant; and on the fitting, Woodrow Wilson on a donkey. Within the center, Roosevelt “rides” his trusty moose, there to suggest his Bull Moose social gathering. Someplace alongside the way in which, between 1912 and now, the {photograph} of Teddy and the moose escaped the confines of its context and located a brand new life as a standalone picture. By 2011, it was popping up in posts like Cracked’s “18 Previous-Timey Photographs You Received’t Imagine Aren’t Photoshopped,” which claimed: “This image is actual, this scene existed, and sure, at one level in our historical past, you could possibly have truly voted for this man.” Posts like this have been then debunked in flip by different weblog posts, like Gizmodo’s “That Well-known Photograph of Teddy Roosevelt Using a Moose is Pretend.” Spherical and spherical we go once more.

    …The truth is, the {photograph}, and references to it, rapidly vanished after September 1912. The triptych doesn’t appear to be reprinted after its first publication, and the {photograph} of Roosevelt doesn’t seem once more in any newspaper archive that I might entry. In different phrases, Teddy and his moose appear to have entered a protracted interval of dormancy, like a hundred-year presidential cicada…One clue as to how and when Teddy and his moose might need slipped the triptych lies within the picture credit score offered for it in latest instances. When web sites trouble to supply the picture (which they hardly ever do), they often give some variation of the next: “UNSPECIFIED—1900: Theodore Roosevelt driving a moose. (Photograph by Underwood And Underwood/Underwood And Underwood/The LIFE Image Assortment through Getty Photos).” In fact, we all know that the picture is from 1912, not 1900; however the remainder of this offers us one other avenue of inquiry…Right here’s what in all probability occurred: LIFE sooner or later acquired a group of images from Underwood and Underwood for potential use. These have been slowly digitized within the early 2000s. Because the LIFE assortment started making its photographic archives simpler to browse on-line, folks found the picture and delighted in it anew. The remainder, as they are saying, is historical past.

47. “Underwood & Underwood”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Underwood & Underwood was an early producer and distributor of stereoscopic and different photographic photographs, and later was a pioneer within the discipline of reports bureau pictures.

48. “1912 United States presidential election”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    The 1912 United States presidential election was the thirty second quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5. Democratic Governor Woodrow Wilson unseated incumbent Republican President William Howard Taft and defeated former President Theodore Roosevelt, who ran beneath the banner of the brand new Progressive or “Bull Moose” Celebration. As of 2020, that is the latest presidential election through which the second-place candidate was neither a Democrat nor a Republican.

49. “William Howard Taft”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    William Howard Taft was the twenty seventh president of america (1909–1913) and the tenth Chief Justice of america (1921–1930), the one particular person to have held each workplaces. Taft was elected president in 1908, the chosen successor of Theodore Roosevelt, however was defeated for re-election by Woodrow Wilson in 1912 after Roosevelt break up the Republican vote by working as a third-party candidate. In 1921, President Warren G. Harding appointed Taft to be chief justice, a place through which he served till a month earlier than his dying.

50. “Woodrow Wilson”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Thomas Woodrow Wilson was an American politician and tutorial who served because the twenty eighth president of america from 1913 to 1921. A member of the Democratic Celebration, Wilson served because the president of Princeton College and because the thirty fourth governor of New Jersey earlier than profitable the 1912 presidential election. As president, he oversaw the passage of progressive legislative insurance policies unparalleled till the New Deal in 1933. He additionally led america into World Conflict I in 1917, establishing an activist international coverage generally known as Wilsonianism. He was the main architect of the League of Nations.

51. https://nitter.net/shockproofbeats/status/1247522391892230144

52. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/school-lemonade-laxatives/

53. https://variety.com/2016/tv/news/peak-tv-2016-scripted-tv-programs-1201944237/

54. https://teyit.org/en/the-claim-of-a-video-that-shows-kidnapped-children-by-organ-traffickers-in-syria/

55. “Three men make a tiger”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    “Three males make a tiger” is a Chinese language proverb or chengyu. “Three males make a tiger” refers to a person’s tendency to just accept absurd data so long as it’s repeated by sufficient folks. It refers to the concept that if an unfounded premise or city legend is talked about and repeated by many people, the premise shall be erroneously accepted as the reality. This idea is expounded to communal reinforcement or the fallacy of argumentum advert populum and argumentum advert nauseam.

56. “Totalitarian principle”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    In quantum mechanics, the totalitarian precept states: “All the things not forbidden is obligatory.” Physicists together with Murray Gell-Mann borrowed this expression, and its satirical reference to totalitarianism, from the favored tradition of the early twentieth century.

57. https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Egan%27s_law

58. “Ludwig Wittgenstein”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Ludwig Josef Johann Wittgenstein was an Austrian-British thinker who labored primarily in logic, the philosophy of arithmetic, the philosophy of thoughts, and the philosophy of language.

59. “Norman Malcolm”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

    

    Norman Malcolm was an American thinker.

60. “List of assassination attempts on Adolf Hitler”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    That is an incomplete checklist of documented makes an attempt to assassinate Adolf Hitler.

61. https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/5753591

62. “Peak–end rule”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    The peak–finish rule is a psychological heuristic through which folks choose an expertise largely based mostly on how they felt at its peak and at its finish, reasonably than based mostly on the full sum or common of each second of the expertise. The impact happens no matter whether or not the expertise is nice or disagreeable. In accordance with the heuristic, different data apart from that of the height and finish of the expertise is just not misplaced, however it’s not used. This contains internet pleasantness or unpleasantness and the way lengthy the expertise lasted. The height–finish rule is thereby a selected type of the extra common extension neglect and length neglect.

63. “Avoid News: Towards a Healthy News Diet”, Rolf Do­belli (2010):

    This text is the antidote to information. It’s lengthy, and also you in all probability received’t have the ability to skim it. Due to heavy information consumption, many individuals have misplaced the studying behavior and battle to soak up greater than 4 pages straight. This text will present you methods to get out of this entice—in case you are not already too deeply in it.

64. “Internet Search Tips”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2018-12-11):

    

    Over time, I de­vel­oped a cer­tain google-fu and ex­per­tise in discover­ing ref­er­ences, pa­pers, and books on­line. A few of these tips should not well-known, like verify­ing the In­ter­internet Archive (IA) for books. I attempt to write down my search work­circulation, and provides gen­eral advert­vice about discover­ing and host­ing doc­u­ments, with demon­stra­tion case stud­ies.

65. /Scanners#leprechaun-hunting-and-historical-context

66. “Robust statistics”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Strong statistics are statistics with good efficiency for information drawn from a variety of likelihood distributions, particularly for distributions that aren’t regular. Strong statistical strategies have been developed for a lot of widespread issues, equivalent to estimating location, scale, and regression parameters. One motivation is to supply statistical strategies that aren’t unduly affected by outliers. One other motivation is to offer strategies with good efficiency when there are small departures from parametric distribution. For instance, sturdy strategies work effectively for mixtures of two regular distributions with completely different standard-deviations; beneath this mannequin, non-robust strategies like a t-test work poorly.

67. “Paracosm”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    A paracosm is an in depth imaginary world. Paracosms are thought typically to originate in childhood and to have one or quite a few creators. The creator of a paracosm has a fancy and deeply felt relationship with this subjective universe, which can incorporate real-world or imaginary characters and conventions. Generally having its personal geography, historical past, and language, it’s an expertise that’s usually developed throughout childhood and continues over a protracted time frame, months and even years, as a complicated actuality that may final into maturity.

68. “Fantasy prone personality”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Fantasy susceptible persona (FPP) is a disposition or persona trait through which an individual experiences a lifelong in depth and deep involvement in fantasy. This disposition is an try, at the least partly, to higher describe “overactive creativeness” or “residing in a dream world”. A person with this trait could have problem differentiating between fantasy and actuality and will expertise hallucinations, in addition to self-suggested psychosomatic signs. Intently associated psychological constructs embrace daydreaming, absorption and eidetic reminiscence.

69. “Maladaptive daydreaming”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Maladaptive daydreaming, additionally known as extreme daydreaming, is a proposed analysis of a disordered type of dissociative absorption related to extreme fantasy that isn’t acknowledged by any main medical or psychological standards. It can lead to misery, can substitute human interplay and will intervene with regular functioning equivalent to social life or work. Maladaptive daydreaming is just not a widely known analysis, and isn’t present in any main diagnostic guide of psychiatry or drugs. The one that coined the time period is of College of Haifa Professor Eli Somer within the 12 months 2002. Somer’s definition of the proposed situation is “in depth fantasy exercise that replaces human interplay and/or interferes with tutorial, interpersonal, or vocational functioning.” There was restricted analysis outdoors of Somer’s.

70. /Questions#psychology

71. “Ostension”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    Ostension is the act of displaying or demonstrating one thing.

72. “The Dark Forest”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-28):

    

    The Darkish Forest is a 2008 science fiction novel by the Chinese language author Liu Cixin. It’s the sequel to the Hugo Award-winning novel The Three-Physique Drawback within the trilogy titled “Remembrance of Earth’s Previous“, however Chinese language readers typically confer with the sequence by the title of the primary novel. The English model, translated by Joel Martinsen, was revealed in 2015.

73. https://davidhume.org/texts/e/10

74. “Of Miracles”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

    “Of Miracles” is the title of Part X of David Hume’s An Enquiry regarding Human Understanding (1748).

75. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/hume-religion/#Mir

76. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/miracles/#ImpHumMir

77. http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/extraordinary_c.html

78. http://hanson.gmu.edu/extraord.pdf

79. /docs/statistics/bayes/1995-cavin.pdf

80. http://lesswrong.com/lw/gu/some_claims_are_just_too_extraordinary/

81. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1at/the_argument_from_witness_testimony/

82. /docs/philo/2012-decruz-trustintestimonyandmiracles.html

83. “One Man’s Modus Ponens”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2012-05-01):

    A log­i­cal­ly-valid ar­gu­ment which takes the type of a modus po­nens could also be in­ter­preted in sev­eral methods; a ma­jor one is to in­ter­pret it as a sort of re­duc­tio ad ab­sur­dum, the place by ‘prov­ing’ a con­clu­sion be­lieved to be false, one may in­stead take it as a modus tol­lens which proves that one of many premises is fake. This “Moorean shift” is aphorized because the snow­clone, “One man’s modus po­nens is an­different man’s modus tol­lens”. The Moorean shift is a pow­er­ful coun­ter-ar­gu­ment which has been de­ployed in opposition to many skep­ti­cal & meta­phys­i­cal claims in phi­los­o­phy, the place usually the con­clu­sion is ex­tremely un­seemingly and lit­tle ev­i­dence will be professional­vided for the premises used within the proofs; and it’s rel­e­vant to many different de­bates, par­tic­u­larly technique­olog­i­cal ones.

84. https://omega0.xyz/omega8008/ETJ-PDF/cc5d.pdf

85. http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/12/e-t-jaynes-explains-why-people-aren%E2%80%99t-convinced-by-climate-change-evidence/

86. “Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Chapter 11: Concerning the Probabilities of Testimonies”, Pier­re-Si­mon Laplace (1814):

    The vast majority of our opinions being based on the likelihood of proofs it’s certainly vital to submit it to calculus. Issues it’s true usually develop into not possible by the issue of appreciating the veracity of witnesses and by the good variety of circumstances which accompany the deeds they attest; however one is ready in a number of instances to resolve the issues which have a lot analogy with the questions that are proposed and whose options could also be thought to be appropriate approximations to information and to defend us in opposition to the errors and the risks of false reasoning to which we’re uncovered. An approximation of this type, when it’s effectively made, is at all times preferable to probably the most specious reasonings.

    We’d give no credence to the testimony of a person who ought to attest to us that in throwing 100 cube into the air they’d all fallen on the identical face. If we had ourselves been spectators of this occasion we should always imagine our personal eyes solely after having fastidiously examined all of the circumstances, and after having introduced within the testimonies of different eyes with a purpose to be fairly positive that there had been neither hallucination nor deception. However after this examination we should always not hesitate to confess it regardless of its excessive improbability; and nobody can be tempted, with a purpose to clarify it, to recur to a denial of the legal guidelines of imaginative and prescient. We should conclude from it that the likelihood of the fidelity of the legal guidelines of nature is for us larger than this, that the occasion in query has not taken place in any respect a likelihood larger than that of the vast majority of historic information which we regard as incontestable. One could choose by this the immense weight of testimonies essential to admit a suspension of pure legal guidelines, and the way improper it could be to use to this case the strange guidelines of criticism. All those that with out providing this immensity of testimonies assist this when making recitals of occasions opposite to these legal guidelines, lower reasonably than increase the idea which they want to encourage; for then these recitals render very possible the error or the falsehood of their authors. However that which diminishes the idea of educated males will increase usually that of the uneducated, at all times grasping for the great.

    The motion of time enfeebles then, with out ceasing, the likelihood of historic information simply because it modifications probably the most sturdy monuments. One can certainly diminish it by multiplying and conserving the testimonies and the monuments which assist them. Printing affords for this goal a terrific means, sadly unknown to the ancients. Despite the infinite benefits which it procures the bodily and ethical revolutions by which the floor of this globe will at all times be agitated will finish, along side the inevitable impact of time, by rendering uncertain after 1000’s of years the historic information regarded to-day as probably the most sure.

87. https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/16/cardiologists-and-chinese-robbers/

88. https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/12/12/might-people-on-the-internet-sometimes-lie/

89. “Different Worlds”, Scott Alexan­der (2017-10-02):

    [Psychiatrist muses about individual differences: how do people perceive & experience such extremely different ‘worlds’, such that some lurch from drama to trauma while others experience few problems, a large fraction of Americans are Young Earth Creationists while he knows none personally, some constantly experience ‘sexism’ and ‘racism’ while others never experience it, some psychiatrists get patients who melt down regularly while others (like him) never do, and so on? (See also: the Dodo Bird Verdict/therapist-specific effects, heritability, reactive gene-environment interaction, typical mind fallacy, cognitive biases, ‘everything is correlated’, the Metallic Laws.)]

    Individuals self-select into bubbles alongside all types of axes. A few of these bubbles are apparent and simple to clarify, like wealthy folks principally assembly different wealthy folks on the nation membership. Others are extra mysterious, like how some non-programmer finally ends up with principally programmer pals. Nonetheless others are horrible and fully outdoors comprehension, like somebody who tries very arduous to keep away from abusers however leads to a number of abusive relationships anyway. Even for 2 folks residing in the identical nation, metropolis, and neighborhood, they’ll have a “society” made up of very several types of folks. Individuals fluctuate broadly on the way in which they understand social interplay. A paranoid schizophrenic will view each interplay as hostile; a Williams Syndrome child will view each interplay as pleasant. In between, there shall be an entire vary of wholesome folks with none psychiatric dysfunction who have a tendency towards one aspect or the opposite. Solely probably the most blatant information will be interpreted absent the priors that these inclinations present; every thing else will solely get processed by means of preexisting assumptions about how folks are likely to act. Since issues like racism hardly ever take the type of somebody going as much as you and saying “Hiya, I’m a racist and due to your pores and skin colour I plan to discriminate in opposition to you within the following methods…”, they’ll find yourself as ambiguous stimuli that everybody will interpret in another way. Lastly, some folks have personalities or kinds of social interplay that unconsciously compel a sure response from their listeners. Name these “niceness fields” or “meanness fields” or no matter: some persons are the kind who—in the event that they turned psychotherapists—would have sufferers who consistently suffered dramatic emotional meltdowns, and others’ sufferers would calmly focus on their issues.

    The outdated query goes: are folks principally good or principally evil? Completely different philosophers give completely different solutions. However so do completely different random folks I do know who aren’t pondering philosophically in any respect. Some folks describe a world of backstabbing Machiavellians, the place everyone’s a shallow social climber who will kick down anybody it takes to get to the highest. Different folks describe a world the place everyone seems to be principally on the identical web page, making an attempt to be good to everybody else however getting caught in communication difficulties and trustworthy disagreements over values.

    I believe each teams are proper. Some folks expertise worlds of basically-good individuals who deal with them properly. Different folks expertise worlds of terrible hypocritical backstabbers. This may be true even when they stay in the identical space as one another, work the identical job as one another, et cetera.

    To return to a typical theme: nothing is sensible besides in gentle of inter-individual variation. Variation in folks’s internal experience. Variation in folks’s basic beliefs and assumptions. Variation in level of abstract thought. And to all of this I’d add a variation in our expertise of different folks.

90. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/12/beware-the-man-of-one-study/

91. “The Control Group Is Out Of Control”, Scott Alexan­der (2014-04-28):

    Allan Crossman calls parapsychology the control group for science. That’s, in let’s say a drug testing experiment, you give some folks the drug they usually get well. That doesn’t let you know a lot till you give another folks a placebo drug you know doesn’t work—however which they themselves imagine in—and see what number of of them get well. That quantity tells you ways many individuals will get well whether or not the drug works or not. Until folks in your actual drug do considerably higher than folks on the placebo drug, you haven’t discovered something. On the meta-level, you’re learning some phenomenon and also you get some optimistic findings. That doesn’t let you know a lot till you are taking another researchers who’re learning a phenomenon you realize doesn’t exist—however which they themselves imagine in—and see what number of of them get optimistic findings. That quantity tells you what number of research will uncover optimistic outcomes whether or not the phenomenon is actual or not. Until research of the true phenomenon do considerably higher than research of the placebo phenomenon, you haven’t discovered something.

    Making an attempt to arrange placebo science can be a logistical nightmare. You’d should discover a phenomenon that positively doesn’t exist, in some way persuade an entire group of scientists the world over that it does, and fund them to check it for a few many years with out them figuring it out.

    Fortunately we’ve a pure experiment by way of parapsychology—the examine of psychic phenomena—which most cheap folks imagine don’t exist, however which a group of practising scientists believes in and publishes papers on on a regular basis. The outcomes are fairly dismal. Parapsychologists are in a position to produce experimental proof for psychic phenomena about as simply as regular scientists are in a position to produce such proof for regular, non-psychic phenomena. This implies the existence of a really massive “placebo impact” in science—ie with sufficient vitality targeted on a topic, you may at all times produce “experimental proof” for it that meets the standard scientific requirements. As Eliezer Yudkowsky puts it:

    Parapsychologists are consistently protesting that they’re taking part in by all the usual scientific guidelines, and but their outcomes are being ignored—that they’re unfairly being held to increased requirements than everybody else. I’m keen to imagine that. It simply signifies that the usual statistical strategies of science are so weak and flawed as to allow a discipline of examine to maintain itself within the full absence of any subject material.

92. https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/14/the-virtue-of-silence/

93. https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2017/03/17/leprechauns-are-multiplying/

94. http://quanticle.net/reviews/trust_me_im_lying.html

95. https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/4ay4vn/reddit-relationships-fake-stories-authors

96. https://medium.com/pcmag-access/how-i-used-lies-about-a-cartoon-to-prove-history-is-meaningless-on-the-internet-6c88bcbc62d7

97. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/17/the-toxoplasma-of-rage/

98. https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9rvroo/most_of_what_you_read_on_the_internet_is_written/

99. https://old.reddit.com/r/UnresolvedMysteries/comments/aetmh9/why_does_high_school_musicals_corbin_bleu_have/

100. https://old.reddit.com/r/HobbyDrama/comments/dk17c9/wikipedia_the_admin_who_created_80000_pages_about/

101. “Do police killings of unarmed persons really have spillover effects? Reanalyzing Bor et al. (2018)”, Justin Nix, M. James Lozada (2019-12-30):

     We reevaluate the declare from Bor et al. (2018: 302) that “police killings of unarmed black People have an affect on psychological well being amongst black American adults within the common inhabitants.” The Mapping Police Violence information utilized by the authors contains 91 incidents involving black decedents who have been both (1) not killed by cops within the line of responsibility or (2) armed when killed. These incidents ought to have been eliminated or recoded previous to evaluation. Appropriately recoding these incidents decreased in magnitude all the reported coefficients, and, extra importantly, eradicated the reported statistically vital impact of publicity to police killings of unarmed black people on the psychological well being of black People within the common inhabitants. We warning researchers to vet fastidiously crowdsourced information that tracks police behaviors and warn in opposition to decreasing these advanced incidents to overly simplistic armed/unarmed dichotomies.

102. “2020 Twitter bitcoin scam”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     On July 15, 2020, between 20:00 and 22:00 UTC, reportedly 130 high-profile Twitter accounts have been compromised by outdoors events to advertise a bitcoin rip-off. Twitter and different media sources confirmed that the perpetrators had gained entry to Twitter’s administrative instruments in order that they might alter the accounts themselves and put up the tweets immediately. They appeared to have used social engineering to realize entry to the instruments through Twitter workers. Three people have been arrested by authorities on July 31, 2020 and charged with wire fraud, cash laundering, id theft, and unauthorized laptop entry associated to the rip-off.

103. “Great Wall of China hoax”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     The Nice Wall of China hoax was a faked newspaper story concocted on June 25, 1899 by 4 reporters in Denver, Colorado about bids by American companies on a contract to demolish the Nice Wall of China and assemble a street as an alternative. The story was reprinted by a lot of newspapers.

104. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/08/researcher-center-epic-fraud-remains-enigma-those-who-exposed-him

105. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/07/the-unbelievable-tale-of-jesus-wife/485573/

106. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/karen-king-responds-to-the-unbelievable-tale-of-jesus-wife/487484/

107. https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n18/james-lasdun/bats-on-the-ceiling

108. https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/is-hansel-and-gretel-real

109. https://gizmodo.com/when-a-stranger-decides-to-destroy-your-life-1827546385

110. “Sort By Controversial”, Scott Alexan­der (2018-10-30):

     [Contemporary SF short story; inspired by NN text generation, social media dynamics, clickbait, and debates like ‘the dress’; imagines AI natural language processing systems run amok after being trained to maximize user reactions to create clickbait, leading to learning ‘scissor statements’, claims which are maximally controversial and divide the population 50-50 between those who find the statement obviously correct and moral, and those who find it equally obviously false and immoral, leading to intractable polarizing debates, contempt, and warfare.]

111. https://charlottelennox.livejournal.com/887.html

112. https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/23/we-are-all-msscribe/

113. /docs/sociology/2014-meganc-obsessedbenedictcumberbatchfanstriedtohavemefired.html

114. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/07/fake-pregnancy-celebrity-theories-benedict-cumberbacth-babygate/614089/

115. https://www.patreon.com/posts/32921860

116. https://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/18/magazine/a-20th-century-master-scam.html

117. “John Drewe”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     John Drewe is a British purveyor of artwork forgeries who commissioned artist John Myatt to color them. Drewe earned about £1.8 million executing these artwork crimes.

118. https://www.thecut.com/2018/05/how-anna-delvey-tricked-new-york.html

119. “Joyce Hatto”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Joyce Hilda Hatto was an English live performance pianist and piano trainer. In 1956 she married William Barrington-Coupe, a file producer who was convicted of Buy Tax evasion in 1966. Hatto turned well-known very late in life when unauthorised copies of business recordings made by different pianists have been launched beneath her identify, incomes her excessive reward from critics. The fraud didn’t come to gentle till 2007, greater than six months after her dying.

120. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/09/17/fantasia-for-piano

121. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/22/world/asia/the-jungle-prince-of-delhi.html

122. “Binjamin Wilkomirski”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     Binjamin Wilkomirski (Pseudonym), actual identify Bruno Dössekker, is a musician and author who claimed to be a Holocaust survivor. His fictional 1995 memoir, revealed in English as Fragments: Reminiscences of a Wartime Childhood, was debunked by Swiss journalist and author Daniel Ganzfried in August 1998. The next disclosure of Wilkomirski’s fabrications sparked heated debate within the German and English-speaking world. Many critics argued that Fragments now not had any literary worth. Swiss historian and anti-Semitism professional Stefan Maechler later wrote, “As soon as the professed interrelationship between the first-person narrator, the death-camp story he narrates, and historic actuality are proved palpably false, what was a masterpiece turns into kitsch.”

123. https://granta.com/the-man-with-two-heads/

124. https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/10/12/13122196/clown-panic-hoax-history

125. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/59755n/the-speedrunner-who-wasnt-how-a-community-dealt-with-an-elaborate-cheater

126. http://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/internet/2016/12/movie-doesn-t-exist-and-redditors-who-think-it-does

127. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2004/12/13/mysterious-circumstances

128. “Richard Lancelyn Green”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     Richard Gordon Lancelyn Inexperienced was a British scholar of Arthur Conan Doyle and Sherlock Holmes, typically thought of the world’s foremost scholar of those subjects.

129. “Momo Challenge hoax”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The “Momo Problem” is a hoax and an Web city legend that was rumored to unfold by means of social media and different retailers. It was reported that kids and adolescents have been being enticed by a person named Momo to carry out a sequence of harmful duties together with violent assaults, self-harm and suicide. Regardless of claims that the phenomenon had reached worldwide proportions in July 2018, the variety of precise complaints was comparatively small and no regulation enforcement company has confirmed that anybody was harmed as a direct results of it.

130. “Blue Whale Challenge”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     “Blue Whale“, also called the “Blue Whale Problem“, is a social community phenomenon relationship from 2016 that’s claimed to exist in a number of nations. It’s a “sport” reportedly consisting of a sequence of duties assigned to gamers by directors over a 50-day interval, initially innocuous earlier than introducing parts of self-harm and the ultimate problem requiring the participant to commit suicide.

131. “Smiley face murder theory”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The Smiley face homicide principle is a principle superior by retired New York Metropolis detectives Kevin Gannon and Anthony Duarte, and Dr. Lee Gilbertson, a felony justice professor and gang professional at St. Cloud State College. They allege that a lot of younger males discovered lifeless in our bodies of water throughout a number of Midwestern American states from the late Nineteen Nineties to the 2010s didn’t unintentionally drown, as concluded by regulation enforcement businesses, however have been victims of a serial killer or killers.

132. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/smiley-face-murder-serial-killer-drowning-death-882042/

133. “Sture Bergwall”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Sture Ragnar Bergwall, also called Thomas Fast in 1993–2002, is a Swedish man beforehand believed to have been a serial killer, having confessed to greater than 30 murders whereas incarcerated in a psychological establishment for persona issues. Between 1994 and 2001, Fast was convicted of eight of those murders. Nevertheless, he withdrew all of his confessions in 2008, on account of which his homicide convictions have been quashed, the ultimate one in July 2013, and he was launched from hospital. The episode raised points about how homicide convictions might have been obtained on such weak proof, and has been known as the most important miscarriage of justice in Swedish historical past. Journalists Hannes Råstam and Dan Josefsson revealed TV documentaries and books concerning the homicide instances; they claimed that unhealthy remedy led to false confessions. Dan Josefsson claims {that a} “cult”-like group led by psychologist Margit Norell manipulated the police and talked Sture Bergwall into false confessions.

134. “Henry Darger”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-27):

     

     Henry Joseph Darger Jr. was an American author, novelist and artist who labored as a hospital custodian in Chicago, Illinois. He has develop into well-known for his posthumously found 15,145-page, single-spaced fantasy manuscript known as The Story of the Vivian Ladies, in What Is Often known as the Realms of the Unreal, of the Glandeco-Angelinian Conflict Storm, Brought on by the Baby Slave Insurrection, together with a number of hundred drawings and watercolor work illustrating the story.

135. “About Henry Darger”, Nos­tal­ge­braist (2011-05-26):

     [On why Henry Darger, a elderly, solitary dishwasher, wrote and illustrated a 15,000+ page unpublished fantasy novel.]

     I’m right here as we speak to let you know a few guide I learn not too long ago, specifically Henry Darger: In The Realms Of The Unreal, by John MacGregor. It’s a examine of Henry Darger, a person I immediately turned obsessive about upon encountering his Wikipedia entry someday final fall.

     Right here’s a fast sketch of who Darger was, which is able to hopefully offer you an concept of why I discover him so fascinating. He was a reclusive man who labored varied dishwashing jobs for many of his life. He solely had one actual buddy in the middle of his life, and though he sometimes interacted with the opposite residents of his condominium advanced, they only noticed him as a peculiar, taciturn eccentric. However when Darger was on his deathbed, his landlord Nathan Lerner started to wash out his room and found one thing unbelievable. Unknown to everybody round him, Darger had been writing and portray. Writing and portray loads. Among the many objects Lerner found have been fifteen huge volumes comprising one steady fictional work entitled The Story of the Vivian Ladies, in What’s Often known as the Realms of the Unreal, of the Glandeco-Angelinian Conflict Storm Brought on by the Baby Slave Insurrection. In complete, the typed, single-spaced textual content was 15,145 pages lengthy—one of many longest fictional works ever produced by a human being, if not the longest. (Whether or not it’s the longest or not relies on what counts as a single work; there are some lengthy works of serial pulp fiction that, in complete, are longer, however that’s provided that you add up the size of a whole bunch of installments.) This was not Darger’s solely writing venture. There was additionally a kind of sequel, Loopy Home, which ran to round 10,000 pages, and the 5000-page autobiography The Historical past of My Life, in addition to quite a few journals and different miscellany. After which there have been the work, a whole bunch of big, odd-looking, compositions depicting battles, scenes of torture, and heroic adventures. (You possibly can see a few of Darger’s artwork because of Google Picture Search here).

     It turned out that the work have been illustrations for Darger’s 15,145-page masterwork, known as In The Realms Of The Unreal for brief. In The Realms Of The Unreal is, in some very broad sense, a fantasy novel. It takes place on a planet far bigger than Earth, which Earth is alleged to orbit as a moon. This planet is usually composed of Catholic nations, of which an important to the plot are Angelinia, Calverinia and Abbieannia. (Protestants don’t seem to exist on this world, although—confusingly sufficient—one of many Catholic nations is named Protestantia.) The story is a few battle between the Catholic nations and the atheist nation Glandelinia, which is inhabited by evil, sadistic individuals who apply institutionalized youngster slavery. Shortly earlier than the time interval described within the textual content, a few of the youngster slaves mounted a riot, led by a heroic 10-year-old named Annie Aronburg. The Glandelineans quashed the riot and killed Aronburg, however this began a sequence of occasions that led to a Glandelinean invasion of Calverinia and finally a full-scale battle between the Catholic nations and Glandelinia. In The Realms Of The Unreal tells the story of this battle, an extremely lengthy succession of big battles, espionage missions, scenes of torture within the Glandelinean slave camps, and so forth. The protagonists, curiously sufficient, are a set of seven prepubescent sisters—the titular Vivian ladies—who observe the Christian armies, spy on the Glandelineans, and narrowly escape mortal hazard on innumerable events. The battles are principally reasonable in nature—although they contain thousands and thousands of combatants—however the world is an enchanted one, stuffed with chimeric beasts known as “Blengiglomenean creatures” (or “Blengins,” for brief) which help and defend the Vivian ladies.

     …The issue comes when MacGregor tries to interpret the textual content psychologically, which occurs usually. MacGregor is a Freudian analyst—he studied with Anna Freud, actually—and he’s primarily inquisitive about Darger as a psychological topic. Now, this isn’t the time or place to hash out whether or not Freudian psychology does or doesn’t succeed, typically talking, at explaining the human thoughts. However even when I withhold judgment on MacGregor’s Freudian premises, his account of Darger’s psychology is simply actually, actually unhealthy and irritating….So, with out additional ado, listed here are some fascinating issues about Henry Darger:

     • Within the Realms, there are quite a few characters named after Darger…These Dargers don’t all appear to be distinct within the creator’s thoughts, and it’s usually complicated which one is being referred to in any given occasion.
     • Darger’s work are stuffed with prepubescent ladies—often the Vivian ladies, however there are additionally generally nameless youngster slaves, and so forth. They’re often depicted bare, even when there isn’t any good cause for this…The little ladies often, however not at all times, have penises…
     • Darger collected numerous random junk in the middle of his menial job. He was notably keen on images of kids…
     • The inspiration for writing the Realms was the lack of a selected newspaper clipping, a photograph of Elsie Paroubek, somewhat lady who had been murdered, and whose homicide was all around the Chicago papers for a short while. Darger’s journals specific no specific curiosity on this image till he found that he had misplaced it. After that, he spent a lot of the remainder of his life in a profound state of anger at God, who he believed had taken the image from him. He noticed the fictional battle between Christians and Glandelineans as a manner of punishing God for taking the image by inflicting hurt to thousands and thousands of (fictional?) Christians.
     • …Darger’s 5000-page work The Historical past Of My Life is putatively an autobiography. Nevertheless, that phrase doesn’t precisely describe the overwhelming majority of its contents. The primary a number of hundred pages of the work are certainly an account of Darger’s adolescence. Nevertheless, after describing a scene through which his youthful self is entranced by the sight of a robust storm, he apparently will get distracted by the storm and spends the remaining 4000-some pages of the textual content describing the wake of destruction attributable to a fictional tornado known as “Sweetie Pie,” with no additional point out of his personal life by any means.
     • …Close to the tip of his life, Darger apparently spent quite a lot of time taking part in with string. In his journal he recounts accumulating string and coiling and uncoiling it, and big quantities of string have been present in his room after his dying.

     …Any account of Darger’s psychology goes to have to clarify this weirdness. That is what, I contend, John MacGregor’s account fails to do. Fails fairly massively, actually—massively sufficient that Darger appears much less, reasonably than extra, understandable after you learn MacGregor attempt to “clarify” him…However MacGregor additionally tells us that the battles generally lasted for a whole bunch of pages, and that they embrace huge quantities of bureaucratic element (about specific regiments, commanders, tactical maneuvers, and so forth.—tons and many correct names), however that none of this element is in any manner self-consistent (in order that it’s not possible, as an example, to type a psychological image of the form of the battlefield that doesn’t distort over time). And that Darger is obsessive about what some may think about the extra “boring” particulars of battle—he spends enormous quantities of time describing the way in which the provision strains work, as an example. It’s nonetheless conceivable that this kind of ridiculously lengthy bureaucratic catalogue may very well be an expression of pent-up rage, but when so, it’s a really odd one, and naturally raises the query of simply what kind of man would take care of his frustrations by going dwelling from his job each evening and writing concerning the tedious technical particulars of a fictional battle. However that’s precisely the query MacGregor doesn’t need to reply…If writing these things was in some way pornographic for Darger, then how is it that a lot of the textual content consists of moralizing concerning the superb Christians and the depraved Glandelineans, describing army maneuvers in mind-numbing element, and so forth, reasonably than speaking about something that smacks in any manner of overt sexuality? Do not forget that this can be a 15,000-page textual content through which nobody ever will get it on; if we’re taking a look at a sexual fantasy, it have to be the coyest sexual fantasy ever produced by the human race.

136. “Tucson artifacts”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The Tucson artifacts, generally known as the Tucson Lead Crosses, Tucson Crosses, Silverbell Highway artifacts, or Silverbell artifacts, have been thirty-one lead objects that Charles E. Manier and his household present in 1924 close to Image Rocks, Arizona which have been initially thought by some to be created by early Mediterranean civilizations that had crossed the Atlantic within the first century, however have been later decided to be a hoax.

137. “Canneto, Caronia”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Canneto is a village and civil parish (frazione) of the Italian municipality of Caronia, within the Province of Messina, Sicily. In Italian language its identify means reed mattress.

138. https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/02/oil-bible-dalton-georgia-trump-prophecy-evangelical-miracle.html

139. “The Intrepid Mother and Son Who Unraveled a Geographic Hoax: Atlas Obscura had a page for something called Moose Boulder, until fan Roger Dickey called us on it.”, Matthew Taub (At­las Ob­scu­ra) (2020-03-10):

     …What had introduced them there, and into this reasonably dicey scenario, was one thing known as Moose Boulder, a sort of geological Matryoshka doll. Right here’s what makes Moose Boulder particular, from the skin in: Lake Superior is the world’s largest freshwater lake, and its largest island is Isle Royale, whose largest lake is named Siskiwit, whose largest island is named Ryan. In accordance with Wikipedia, at the least, Ryan Island is dwelling to a seasonal pond known as Moose Flats that, when flooded, accommodates its personal island—Moose Boulder. This makes it “the most important island within the largest lake on the most important island within the largest lake on the most important island within the largest lake on the planet.” Spoiler: Mom and son made it out alive, but it surely wasn’t as a result of they came across a geological/hydrological anomaly that they might use to get their bearings. They couldn’t have, as a result of, regardless of what the web has to say, Moose Boulder virtually absolutely doesn’t exist.

     …It’s uncertain that any of those different hikers, nonetheless, had consulted Atlas Obscura. Had they performed so, Dickey quickly realized, they might have discovered the exact coordinates: 48.0088°, −88.7720°. They’d have seen that some folks had marked visiting it on their Atlas Obscura profiles. Dickey needed to get inventive to really contact these folks. “I did Google reverse picture seek for their profile pictures,” he says, which led him to 2 folks with social media presences, neither of whom responded to his messages…Naturally, as all of them do, the Atlas Obscura entry for the location had a picture—albeit a grainy one—of a lonely little rock, cautiously jutting out of the water, feebly sprouting some weeds…Many pictures that customers add to Atlas Obscura hyperlink to their authentic sources, however this one was a lifeless finish. Utilizing the Wayback Machine, Dickey discovered that it had come from a defunct web site that appeared to doc a geological analysis expedition to Ryan Island…The supposed photographic proof had certainly come from that expedition, but it surely was merely a photograph of an strange rock, off the coast of Isle Royale itself and never of the Inception of islands deep inside it.

     By now, the percentages appeared overwhelming to Dickey that Moose Boulder was a fantasy, a spasm of the Web’s creativeness that had managed to proliferate and stay on. However nonetheless, one thing didn’t fairly add up. There was a lacking piece to the puzzle that stopped Dickey in need of declaring all of it a hoax. He had discovered one other article about Moose Boulder, revealed in 2009, that cited Wikipedia as its supply of knowledge. However the details about Moose Boulder had been added to Siskiwit Lake’s Wikipedia web page in 2012. It was like a scene in a nasty horror film through which somebody will get a telephone name from a lifeless particular person. Dickey joked together with his girlfriend that maybe Moose Boulder does exist, however solely in some sort of “temporal anomaly.”…Right here’s the rub: Wikipedia is a nesting doll, too. Earlier than a web page for Siskiwit Lake had been added to the location, the web page for Isle Royale had pointed readers to Moose Boulder, and had been doing so since 2009. It was put there by a unique person than the one who added it to the Siskiwit web page in 2012. Both manner, that’s the place the path goes chilly, and there’s no different proof that the place exists. The id of that first Wikipedia person to jot down about it—with these fully unrelated sources—stays a thriller, however all out there proof means that it was an individual having amusing, nothing extra.

140. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nothing-on-this-page-is-real-how-lies-become-truth-in-online-america/2018/11/17/edd44cc8-e85a-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

141. https://www.thecut.com/2019/07/bruce-hay-paternity-trap-maria-pia-shuman-mischa-haider.html

142. https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.541599/gov.uscourts.nysd.541599.1.0.pdf

143. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/us/montana-chemist-water.html

144. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/magazine/title-ix-sexual-harassment-accusations.html

145. https://www.schneier.com/academic/paperfiles/Common_Knowledge_Attacks.pdf

146. http://highscalability.com/blog/2012/3/12/google-taming-the-long-latency-tail-when-more-machines-equal.html

147. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.732.6087&rep=rep1&type=pdf

148. https://landing.google.com/sre/books/

149. “”One in a million” is next Tuesday”, Larry Os­ter­man (2004-03-30):

     I used to be wanting right into a bug with Gordon Letwin, the architect for DOS 4. I appeared on the code and commented “Perhaps that is what was taking place? But when that have been the case, it’d take a one in one million probability for it to occur”.

     Gordon’s response was merely: “In our enterprise, one in one million is subsequent Tuesday”. He then went on to remark that on the speeds which trendy computer systems function (>4.77 MHz, keep in mind), issues occurred so rapidly that one thing with a one in one million probability of incidence is more likely to occur within the subsequent day or so.

     I’m undecided I’ve ever obtained higher recommendation in my profession. It has completely stood the take a look at of time—irrespective of how small the possibility of one thing taking place, with trendy computer systems and trendy working programs, basically each doable race situation or impasse shall be discovered inside an inexpensive time frame. And I’ve seen some absolute doozies in my time—race situations on MP machines the place a non interlocked increment occurred (one variant of Michael Grier’s i = i + 1 bug). Information corruptions as a result of you’ve gotten one non protected entry to a knowledge construction. I’m frequently amazed on the NT scheduler’s uncanny capacity to context swap my utility at simply the fitting time as to reveal my information synchronization bug. Or to point out simply how I can get my information buildings deadlocked in hideous methods.

     So these days, every time anybody feedback on how unlikely it’s for some occasion to happen, my reply is solely: “One in one million is subsequent Tuesday”.

150. “Language ID in the Wild: Unexpected Challenges on the Path to a
     Thousand-Language Web Text Corpus”, Isaac Caswell, Theresa Brein­er, Daan van Es­ch, Ankur Bapna (2020-10-27):

     Massive textual content corpora are more and more vital for all kinds of Pure Language Processing (NLP) duties, and computerized language identification (LangID) is a core expertise wanted to gather such datasets in a multilingual context. LangID is essentially handled as solved within the literature, with fashions reported that obtain over 90% common F1 on as many as 1,366 languages. We prepare LangID fashions on as much as 1,629 languages with comparable high quality on held-out take a look at units, however discover that human-judged LangID accuracy for web-crawl textual content corpora created utilizing these fashions is just round 5% for a lot of lower-resource languages, suggesting a necessity for extra sturdy analysis. Additional evaluation revealed a wide range of error modes, arising from area mismatch, class imbalance, language similarity, and insufficiently expressive fashions. We suggest two courses of strategies to mitigate these errors: wordlist-based tunable-precision filters (for which we launch curated lists in about 500 languages) and transformer-based semi-supervised LangID fashions, which improve median dataset precision from 5.5% to 71.2%. These strategies allow us to create an preliminary information set overlaying 100K or extra comparatively clear sentences in every of 500+ languages, paving the way in which in direction of a 1,000-language internet textual content corpus.

151. https://code.fb.com/production-engineering/solving-the-mystery-of-link-imbalance-a-metastable-failure-state-at-scale/

152. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.648.1155&rep=rep1&type=pdf

153. https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xwk9zd/how-facebook-content-moderation-works

154. http://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2011/08/10/bh-2011-bit-squatting-dns-hijacking-without-exploitation/

155. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/drams-damning-defects-and-how-they-cripple-computers

156. https://aeon.co/essays/why-fake-miniatures-depicting-islamic-science-are-everywhere

157. https://www.thestranger.com/features/2018/11/07/35073826/death-of-a-kinkster

158. https://arcsecond.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/late-night-thoughts-on-reading-scientology/

159. http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/the-lying-disease/Content?oid=15337239

160. https://www.thecut.com/2019/05/the-tinder-hacker.html

161. https://hapgood.us/2019/03/28/network-heuristics/

162. https://hapgood.us/2018/02/18/recognition-is-futile-why-checklist-approaches-to-information-literacy-fail-and-what-to-do-about-it/

163. http://www.silcom.com/~barnowl/chain-letter/evolution.html#3-5origin_of_testimonials

164. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18700656

165. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22319466

166. https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/a6pdk7/littlewoods_law_and_the_global_media/

167. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grrMAwJrELry5BhSy/littlewood-s-law-and-the-global-media

168. “John Edensor Littlewood”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     John Edensor Littlewood was a British mathematician. He labored on subjects regarding evaluation, quantity principle, and differential equations, and had a prolonged collaboration with G. H. Hardy and Mary Cartwright.

169. “Freeman Dyson”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Freeman John Dyson was a British-American theoretical and mathematical physicist, mathematician, and statistician identified for his works in quantum discipline principle, astrophysics, random matrices, mathematical formulation of quantum mechanics, condensed matter physics, nuclear physics, and engineering. He was Professor Emeritus within the Institute for Superior Examine in Princeton, a member of the Board of Guests of Ralston Faculty, and a member of the Board of Sponsors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

170. “A Mathematician’s Miscellany”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     A Mathematician’s Miscellany is an autobiography and assortment of anecdotes by John Edensor Littlewood. It’s now out of print however Littlewood’s Miscellany is its successor, revealed by Cambridge College Press and edited by Béla Bollobás.

171. https://archive.org/details/mathematiciansmi033496mbp/page/n111

172. https://archive.org/details/littlewoodsmisce0000litt/page/n5

173. “Oxford Group”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The Oxford Group was a Christian group first generally known as First Century Christian Fellowship based by the American Lutheran Christian priest Frank Buchman in 1921. Buchman believed that the foundation of all issues have been the private issues of concern and selfishness. Additional, Buchman believed that the answer to residing with concern and selfishness was to “give up one’s life over to God’s plan”.

174. https://archive.org/details/debunked00geor

175. https://www.amazon.com/Scientist-Rebel-Review-Books-Paperback/dp/1590172949

176. “Zener cards”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Zener playing cards are playing cards used to conduct experiments for extrasensory notion (ESP) or clairvoyance. Perceptual psychologist Karl Zener (1903–1964) designed the playing cards within the early Thirties for experiments carried out together with his colleague, parapsychologist J. B. Rhine (1895–1980). The unique sequence of experiments have been discredited and replication has proved elusive.

177. “Joseph Banks Rhine”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Joseph Banks Rhine, often generally known as J. B. Rhine, was an American botanist who based parapsychology as a department of psychology, founding the parapsychology lab at Duke College, the Journal of Parapsychology, the Basis for Analysis on the Nature of Man, and the Parapsychological Affiliation. Rhine wrote the books Extrasensory Notion and Parapsychology: Frontier Science of the Thoughts.

178. https://www.et.byu.edu/~wheeler/benchtop/flight.php

179. /docs/math/1986-boolos.pdf

180. “Persi Diaconis”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     Persi Warren Diaconis is an American mathematician of Greek descent and former skilled magician. He’s the Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Arithmetic at Stanford College.

181. “Frederick Mosteller”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     Charles Frederick Mosteller, often generally known as Frederick Mosteller, was one of the crucial eminent statisticians of the twentieth century. He was the founding chairman of Harvard’s statistics division, from 1957 to 1971, and served because the president of a number of skilled our bodies together with the Psychometric Society, the American Statistical Affiliation, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the American Affiliation for the Development of Science, and the Worldwide Statistical Institute.

182. “Regression toward the mean”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     In statistics, regression towards the imply is the phenomenon that arises if a pattern level of a random variable is excessive, a future level shall be nearer to the imply or common on additional measurements. To keep away from making incorrect inferences, regression towards the imply have to be thought of when designing scientific experiments and decoding information. Traditionally, what’s now known as regression towards the imply was additionally known as reversion to the imply and reversion to mediocrity.

183. “Poisson point process”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     In likelihood, statistics and associated fields, a Poisson level course of is a kind of random mathematical object that consists of factors randomly situated on a mathematical house. The Poisson level course of is commonly known as merely the Poisson course of, however it’s also known as a Poisson random measure, Poisson random level discipline or Poisson level discipline. This level course of has handy mathematical properties, which has led to it being regularly outlined in Euclidean house and used as a mathematical mannequin for seemingly random processes in quite a few disciplines equivalent to astronomy, biology, ecology, geology, seismology, physics, economics, picture processing, and telecommunications.

184. “Law of truly large numbers”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The regulation of actually massive numbers, attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a big sufficient variety of samples, any outrageous factor is more likely to be noticed. As a result of we by no means discover it notable when seemingly occasions happen, we spotlight unlikely occasions and spot them extra. The regulation is commonly used to falsify completely different pseudo-scientific claims, as such it and its use is typically criticized by fringe scientists.

185. “Random matrix”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     In likelihood principle and mathematical physics, a random matrix is a matrix-valued random variable—that’s, a matrix through which some or all parts are random variables. Many vital properties of bodily programs will be represented mathematically as matrix issues. For instance, the thermal conductivity of a lattice will be computed from the dynamical matrix of the particle-particle interactions throughout the lattice.

186. “Mathematical Sciences Research Institute”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2021-01-02):

     

     The Mathematical Sciences Analysis Institute (MSRI) is an unbiased nonprofit mathematical analysis establishment in Berkeley, California. It’s broadly thought to be a world main mathematical middle for collaborative analysis, drawing 1000’s of visiting researchers from world wide annually.

187. http://www.msri.org/workshops/220

188. “Stigler’s law of eponymy”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     Stigler’s regulation of eponymy, proposed by College of Chicago statistics professor Stephen Stigler in his 1980 publication Stigler’s regulation of eponymy, states that no scientific discovery is called after its authentic discoverer. Examples embrace Hubble’s regulation, which was derived by Georges Lemaître two years earlier than Edwin Hubble, the Pythagorean theorem, which was identified to Babylonian mathematicians earlier than Pythagoras, and Halley’s Comet, which was noticed by astronomers since at the least 240 BC. Stigler himself named the sociologist Robert Okay. Merton because the discoverer of “Stigler’s regulation” to point out that it follows its personal decree, although the phenomenon had beforehand been famous by others.

189. “Fermi problem”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     In physics or engineering training, a Fermi downside, Fermi quiz, Fermi query, Fermi estimate, order-of-magnitude downside, order-of-magnitude estimate, or order estimation is an estimation downside designed to show dimensional evaluation or approximation of utmost scientific calculations, and such an issue is often a back-of-the-envelope calculation. The estimation approach is called after physicist Enrico Fermi as he was identified for his capacity to make good approximate calculations with little or no precise information. Fermi issues usually contain making justified guesses about portions and their variance or decrease and higher bounds.

190. “Formication”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     Formication is the feeling that resembles that of small bugs crawling on the pores and skin when there may be nothing there. It’s one particular type of a set of sensations generally known as paresthesias, which additionally embrace the extra widespread prickling, tingling sensation generally known as “pins and needles”. Formication is a effectively documented symptom, which has quite a few doable causes. The phrase is derived from formica, the Latin phrase for ant.

191. “Replication crisis”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-27):

     

     The replication disaster is, as of 2020, an ongoing methodological disaster through which it has been discovered that many scientific research are tough or not possible to copy or reproduce. The replication disaster impacts the social sciences and drugs most severely. The disaster has long-standing roots; the phrase was coined within the early 2010s as a part of a rising consciousness of the issue. The replication disaster represents an vital physique of analysis within the discipline of metascience.

192. “Lizardman’s Constant Is 4%”, Scott Alexan­der (2013-04-12):

     I’ve solely performed somewhat little bit of social science analysis, but it surely was sufficient to make me hate folks. One examine I helped with analyzed whether or not folks from completely different nations had completely different solutions on a sure psychological take a look at. So we put up an internet site the place folks answered some questions on themselves (like “what nation are you from?”) after which took the psychological take a look at. And so after all folks screwed it up in each conceivable manner. There have been the merely dumb, just like the man who put “male” as his nationality and “American” as his gender. However there have been additionally the actively malicious or at the least annoying, just like the folks (sure, multiple) who wrote in “Martian”.

     I believe all of us in all probability know somebody like this, possibly a pair folks like this. I additionally suppose most of us don’t know somebody who believes reptilian aliens in human type management all the key nations of Earth. Public Coverage Polling’s latest ballot on conspiracy theories principally confirmed up on my Fb feed as “4% of People imagine lizardmen are working the Earth” (of be aware, a further 7% of People are “undecided” whether or not lizardmen are working the Earth or not.)

     Think about the scenario. You’re at dwelling, consuming dinner. You get a name from somebody who says “Hiya, that is Public Coverage Polling. Would you thoughts answering some questions for us?” You say “Certain”. An especially dignified sounding voice says—and that is the precise wording of the query—“Do you imagine that shape-shifting reptilian folks management our world by taking over human type and gaining political energy to control our society, or not?” Then it urges you to press 1 if sure, press 2 if no, press 3 if undecided. So first we get the individuals who suppose “Wait, was 1 the one for if I did imagine in lizardmen, or if I didn’t? I’ll simply press 1 and transfer on to the following query.” Then we get the people who find themselves like “I by no means heard it earlier than, but when this good pollster thinks it’s true, I would as effectively go together with them.” Then we get the people who find themselves all “F#&okay you, polling firm, I don’t need folks calling me once I’m at dinner. You screw with me, I let you know what I’m going to do. I’m going to let you know I imagine lizard persons are working the planet.” And then we get the individuals who put “Martian” as their nationality in psychology experiments. As a result of some males simply need to watch the world burn.

     Do these three teams complete 4% of the US inhabitants? Appears believable.

     …However generally it’s not some abstruse refined bias. Typically it’s not a good-natured joke. Typically folks may simply be actively working to deprave your information.

     One other hyperlink I’ve seen on my Fb wall a couple of instances is that this one: “Are Local weather Change Sceptics Extra Possible To Be Conspiracy Theorists?” It’s based mostly on a paper by Stephen Lewandowsky et al known as “NASA Faked The Moon Touchdown, Subsequently Local weather Science Is A Hoax—An Evaluation Of The Motivated Rejection Of Science”. The paper’s thesis was that local weather change skeptics are motivated by conspiracy ideation—a perception that there are massive teams of sinister folks out to deceive them. This appears kind of cheap on the face of it—being a local weather change skeptic requires going in opposition to the idea of the whole scientific institution. My guess is that there in all probability is a major hyperlink right here ready to be found.…However a bunch of world warming skeptics began re-analyzing the info and developing with their very own interpretations…Extra curiously, they discovered that just about all the hyperlink between international warming skepticism and stupidity was a few folks (there have been so few skeptics, and so few conspiracy believers, that these couple of individuals made up a fairly large proportion of them, and far more than sufficient to get a “vital” distinction with the worldwide warming believers). Additional, most of those couple of individuals had given the maximally skeptical reply to each single query about international warming, and the maximally credulous reply to each single query about conspiracies.

     The hazard right here now appears apparent. International warming believer blogs publish a hyperlink to this examine, saying gleefully that it’s going to show that international warming skeptics are idiots who additionally suppose NASA faked the moon touchdown and the world is run by lizardmen or no matter. Some international warming believers resolve to assist this course of alongside by pretending to be super-strong international warming skeptics and filling within the stupidest solutions they’ll to each query. The few actual international warming skeptics who take the survey aren’t sufficient sign to fully drown out this noise. Subsequently, they do the statistics and triumphantly announce that international warming skepticism is linked to silly beliefs.

     …The lesson from all three of the instances on this put up appears clear. After we’re speaking about very unpopular beliefs, polls can solely give a weak sign. Any doable supply of noise—jokesters, cognitive biases, or deliberate misbehavior—can simply overwhelm the sign. Subsequently, polls that depend on detecting very weak alerts must be taken with a grain of salt.

193. “Internet Search Tips: 14 Case Studies”, Gw­ern Bran­wen (2020-01-21):

     Followup part to the article overlaying methods to search the Web successfully: 14 case research of difficult Web searches drawn from the previous 10 years. I current the issue, and step by means of the method of discovering it, and describe my tacit information and implicit methods. These case research hopefully make the prior ideas extra comprehensible by displaying them off in apply.

194. “Modus ponens”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     In propositional logic, modus ponens, also called modus ponendo ponens or implication elimination or affirming the antecedent, is a deductive argument type and rule of inference. It may be summarized as “P implies Q. P is true. Subsequently Q should even be true.”

195. “Reductio ad absurdum”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     In logic, reductio advert absurdum, also called argumentum advert absurdum, apagogical arguments, negation introduction or the attraction to extremes, is the type of argument that makes an attempt to ascertain a declare by displaying that the alternative situation would result in absurdity or contradiction. It may be used to disprove a press release by displaying that it could inevitably result in a ridiculous, absurd, or impractical conclusion, or to show a press release by displaying that if it have been false, then the end result can be absurd or not possible. Traced again to classical Greek philosophy in Aristotle’s Prior Analytics, this method has been used all through historical past in each formal mathematical and philosophical reasoning, in addition to in debate.

196. “Modus tollens”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     In propositional logic, modus tollens (MT), also called modus tollendo tollens and denying the resultant, is a deductive argument type and a rule of inference. Modus tollens takes the type of “If A, then B. Not B. Subsequently, not A.” It’s an utility of the overall reality that if a press release is true, then so is its contrapositive. The shape exhibits that inference from A implies B to the negation of B implies the negation of A is a sound argument.

197. “Snowclone”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     A snowclone is a cliché and phrasal template that can be utilized and acknowledged in a number of variants. The time period was coined as a neologism in 2004, derived from journalistic clichés that referred to the variety of Eskimo phrases for snow.

198. “Dodo bird verdict”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-22):

     The Dodo hen verdict is a controversial subject in psychotherapy, referring to the declare that every one empirically validated psychotherapies, no matter their particular elements, produce equal outcomes. It’s named after The Dodo character of Alice in Wonderland. The conjecture was launched by Saul Rosenzweig in 1936, drawing on imagery from Lewis Carroll’s novel Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, however solely got here into prominence with the emergence of recent analysis proof within the Seventies.

199. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/baTWMegR42PAsH9qJ/generalizing-from-one-example

200. “The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules”, Pe­ter H. Rossi (2012-09-18):

     Issues with social experiments and evaluating them, loopholes, causes, and recommendations; non-experimental strategies systematically ship false outcomes, as most interventions fail or have small results.

201. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/17/what-universal-human-experiences-are-you-missing-without-realizing-it/

202. https://squid314.livejournal.com/337475.html

203. https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/11/03/what-developmental-milestones-are-you-missing/

204. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1ib/parapsychology_the_control_group_for_science/

205. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9qCN6tRBtksSyXfHu/frequentist-statistics-are-frequently-subjective

206. “The dress”, Eng­lish Wikipedia (2020-12-27):

     

     The costume is {a photograph} that turned a viral web sensation on 26 February 2015, when viewers disagreed over whether or not the costume pictured was colored black and royal blue, or white and gold. The phenomenon revealed variations in human color notion, which have been the topic of ongoing scientific investigations into neuroscience and imaginative and prescient science, with a lot of papers revealed in peer-reviewed science journals.

207. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Darger

208. http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=henry+darger&gbv=2&biw=1218&bih=673